Forecast: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple, Dogecoin

What is the short-term and long-term forecast for the cryptocurrencies Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Ripple (XRP) and Dogecoin (DOGE)?

The following is an in-depth discussion on the subject. 

Some forecasts regarding Bitcoin and Ethereum: comparison with Ripple and Dogecoin 

Just like Bitcoin, ETH is also mainly influenced by expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. 

From a fundamental perspective, ETH currently has an annual deflation rate of 0.877%, indicating a prolonged period of deflation. 

Ethereum‘s staking rate has exceeded the drawdown rate for 24 consecutive days, currently reaching 15.48%, continuing to increase. However, from a technical perspective, the ETH/BTC exchange rate has been moving within a broad downward channel since 10 September 2022. 

There have been recent attempts to break through the upper limit of the descending channel, suggesting possible strengthening. Overall, ETH’s fundamentals have improved, but its overall trend remains weaker than BTC.

In June, if BTC rebounds strongly, ETH could stabilize around $2,000 and reach a range of $2,300 to $2,500. Otherwise, it is likely to hover between $1,800 and $2,000.

Focus on Bitcoin’s price 

We then see that, on 21 May, the trading volume of BTC fell to its lowest level in two months, with a daily market trading volume of only $10.42 billion. 

Over the past 12 days or so, the price of BTC has remained around $27,000, signaling a significant contraction in volume that could indicate a possible reversal in the near future.

In summary, from an external macro perspective, unless ‘black swan’ events occur, such as the failure to raise the US debt ceiling or the liquidation of a major bank, it is very likely that the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates. 

However, the decision to maintain interest rates would be in line with market expectations. 

Therefore, if an increase of 25 basis points were to occur, this could have a short-term negative impact on BTC, resulting in an overall neutral or negative effect. 

From a technical analysis perspective, BTC has been going through a correction and oscillation phase for about 20 days. 

Should this oscillation continue into June, the correction period could exceed the one-month time frame, providing an opportunity for price consolidation and creating potential momentum for a rebound.

Therefore, it is important to monitor three key price levels: $25,000, $28,000 and $29,000. BTC is expected to fluctuate between $25,000 and $29,000. 

If it can successfully break above $29,000 and maintain stability, there may be a chance to break the previous high in the short term.

Ripple: between new initiatives and the lawsuit with the SEC 

Ripple (XRP) recently reported a number of positive developments, including the acquisition of Metaco, a company specializing in digital asset custody and tokenization technology. 

It also participated in a digital currency pilot project sponsored by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and launched its own Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) platform. 

These initiatives are aimed at expanding Ripple’s business and generating new profit opportunities for the company. In fact, in an interview, Ripple’s CEO mentioned that the company has over $1 billion in cash on its balance sheet, which will be used for further expansion.

However, despite these promising developments, Ripple is still involved in a legal dispute with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) that has been going on for more than two years. 

This ongoing dispute remains the most crucial factor affecting the price volatility of XRP, Ripple’s native cryptocurrency. The resolution of this case, expected in June or July, could have a significant impact on the future direction of XRP and the overall regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies in the United States.

As the conclusion of the legal proceeding approaches, therefore, the course of XRP’s price in June remains highly uncertain and will depend on the course and final outcome of the case. 

It is expected that the settlement announcement could increase the instability of market sentiment, leading to significant price fluctuations driven by news updates and developments.

Dogecoin forecast: how does the price trend compare to Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple?

In the current frenzy of meme coins, such as PEPE and AIDOOGE, surprisingly DOGE, the original and much-loved meme coin, has not received much attention and has not been the focus of broader debates. 

However, Elon Musk‘s endorsement and the anticipation of empowerment initiatives by prominent companies such as Twitter and Tesla continue to be major growth catalysts for DOGE.

As for Dogechain, the launch of the DRC-20 token reached an all-time high of about 645,000 transactions on the DOGE network on 14 May. 

However, the development goal is to gradually shift to using its native token, $DC, as the default choice for all activities on the Dogechain platform. 

Although wDOGE may be required for gas payments on the chain, the likelihood of further enhancements for DOGE in the future seems low. Therefore, the potential impact of these factors in driving up DOGE prices remains limited. 

This is all unless there are exceptional circumstances such as significant approvals or unsympathetic support from Elon Musk.

As a result, the price performance of DOGE in June, known as one of the top 10 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, should follow the general market trend.