Fidelity Digital Assets estimates that by the end of 2025 more than 28% of Bitcoin’s supply could be locked by long-term holders and corporate treasuries, increasing Bitcoin scarcity and potentially tightening liquidity with meaningful price implications for the market.
28%+ of Bitcoin supply may be illiquid by 2025, per Fidelity Digital Assets
Corporate treasuries and long-term holders drive sustained lockups that reduce circulating supply.
Historical illiquidity episodes correlate with elevated volatility and potential upward price pressure.
Meta description: Bitcoin scarcity rises as Fidelity forecasts 28% locked supply by 2025 — read implications for price, institutions, and custody. Explore analysis and steps.
What does Fidelity’s forecast mean for Bitcoin scarcity?
Fidelity Digital Assets’ analysis indicates growing Bitcoin scarcity as long-term holders and corporate treasuries lock more coins, potentially placing over 28% of supply out of circulation by 2025. This shift tightens market liquidity and can magnify price moves when demand changes.
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How are long-term holders and corporate treasuries driving illiquidity?
Long-term holders—addresses and entities that have not moved coins for extended periods—and corporate treasuries buying and holding large positions are primary drivers of illiquidity.
Entities holding >1,000 BTC and institutional allocations reduce exchange-available supply, creating a structural scarcity effect even if overall demand rises only modestly.
Why does increased illiquidity matter for Bitcoin price?
Illiquidity reduces the available float, which can amplify price moves when demand shifts. Historical analysis shows periods of constrained supply often correspond with sharp rallies or exaggerated swings, driven by concentrated accumulation among long-term holders and institutional buyers.
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Fidelity Digital Assets cites this supply-side dynamic as a structural change versus previous cycles where more coins remained tradable.
Market effects typically emerge as demand rises or during liquidity shocks (e.g., macro events or regulatory developments). With projected lockups intensifying through 2025, even moderate demand increases could translate to outsized price responses.
Regulatory rulings, tax policy changes, or shifts in institutional custody solutions could change incentives for corporate treasuries and funds to hold or sell Bitcoin.
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