Fed’s 25bps cut sparks Bitcoin repricing: October breakout ahead?

Key Takeaways

How is BTC reacting to the Fed’s rate cut?

Bitcoin is grinding +0.72%, range-bound, with flows measured and a potential long squeeze in play.

What’s setting up Bitcoin for year-end?

Dovish Fed signals, seasonal tailwinds, and aligned macro flows keep BTC primed for a potential ATH.

No parabolic moves, just Bitcoin [BTC] grinding +0.72% intraday as the FOMC delivers its first 25 bps cut of 2025. The tape is cautious, with range-bound action signaling traders are sitting tight.

What’s the takeaway?

Market participants are still sizing up Q4, with Fed Chair Powell’s mixed signals on future rate cuts keeping flows measured, as Matt Mena, Crypto Research Strategist at 21Shares, told AMBCrypto.

“The cut itself was widely priced in – what mattered more was the Fed’s updated dot plot. Futures markets had been discounting only a 50% chance of 4–5 cuts through the end of next year.”

He added,

“While today’s 25bps cut provided the spark, it is the path implied by the dots – more than the cut itself – that may set the stage for Bitcoin to challenge new highs into year-end.”

Fed’s dot plot shapes BTC’s long-term positioning

Bitcoin traders are leaning on the Fed’s dot plot to size up positioning. 

According to the latest projections, the Fed is signaling two more 25bps cuts by year-end, pushing the target range down to 3.50%–3.75% from 4.00%–4.25%. In short, Bitcoin’s long-term positioning remains dovish.

Powell’s inflation caution capped the short-term squeeze, keeping the tape range-bound. Yet the dot plot shows most Fed officials leaning toward two more cuts, keeping BTC positioned to grind toward new highs by year-end.

“The dots leaned more dovish, signaling the Fed is open to accelerating the pace of easing if conditions demand it. That repricing risk is now front and center – creating an asymmetric setup for Bitcoin.”