Ethereum’s Q4 reset: Is an ETH/BTC breakout coming in Q1 2026?

This cycle is definitely looking different from the past. 

No wonder the market’s moving with extra caution. Take the altcoin scene, for example. A few years ago, volatility this high would’ve had investors diving into “high-risk, high-reward” plays. 

Fast-forward to now, the Altcoin Season Index shows only 12 alts in the green against Bitcoin [BTC]. Despite this divergence, though, Ethereum [ETH] is sticking to a similar playbook, at least on the derivatives side.

Source: Alphractal

Notably, Ethereum has gone through a classic deleveraging event.

From the chart above, ETH’s OI has dropped over 50% from its $70 billion peak before the October crash, roughly a $35 billion leverage flush. By comparison, BTC’s OI is down about 38% over the same period.

Technically, this shows Ethereum took a deeper hit, with its 1.3% fallout versus Bitcoin so far in Q4 not being random. The key question now: Does this position ETH for a stronger run once the market flips back to risk-on?

Structural strength set Ethereum up for Q1 2026

As a Layer 1, Ethereum’s value goes beyond just its spot price.

Its strong presence across key sectors (DeFi, RWA, stablecoins, TradFi, NFTs, and more) speaks to the “long-term” potential of ETH. Consequently, that makes its consolidation around $3k feel less random.

Backing this, since the drop to $3k on the 17th of November, Ethereum’s on-chain metrics have stabilized. For instance, its TVL, after a $20 billion Q4 squeeze, has been hovering around $70 billion since November.

Source: DeFiLlama

Meanwhile, Ethereum’s TVS is showing a similar pattern. 

Data shows that ETH’s TVS hit an ATH of 36.27 million on the 18th of November and has been hovering above 36 million since. Taken together, this shows that despite volatility, activity around ETH remains steady.

Combine this with ETH’s leverage flush, structural resilience, and on-chain stability, it looks like ETH’s Q4 bleed versus BTC isn’t a setback. Instead, it could be setting the stage for an ETH/BTC breakout into Q1 2026.

Final Thoughts

• Ethereum has already flushed excess leverage, while on-chain metrics have stabilized, signaling structural strength despite Q4 volatility.
• This deeper Q4 drawdown versus BTC may be constructive, potentially setting the stage for an ETH/BTC breakout.