Key Takeaways:
- Ethereum price is currently trading at a 42% discount to Bitcoin, according to historical fair value.
- As Eth ETF inflows pick up and unchain activity excels, the ETH price could have a lot further to go.
- The ETH price has consolidated for four years and analysts like Ted Pillows are calling for between $8,000 and $12,000 this cycle.
Ethereum is grabbing every technical analyst’s attention this week. The ETH price is not exactly witnessing fireworks; it’s more with the kind of persistent undervaluation that sets up dream trades for mean reversion.
The current ETH price hovers near $4,000, trading at a steep 42% discount relative to Bitcoin, according to ecoinometrics. That’s an anomaly given the historical ratio between the two assets. If you backtest Ethereum’s fair value against BTC, ETH is now about as cheap as it gets for those betting on convergence.
So, what’s really happening here? Is the ETH price falling against BTC, just like real estate, gold, and other assets? Or, is Ethereum really on sale? As ecoinometrics states:
“If you believe the Ethereum ETFs can attract capital anywhere near what Bitcoin’s have, ETH looks like a bargain.”
Ethereum ETF Inflows: The BlackRock Effect
The big narrative boost for the ETH price comes from Ethereum ETFs. Once derided as perpetually late to the party, they’re now catching up in a hurry. As October closes, ETH ETF inflows have picked up once again, bolstered by BlackRock’s latest $76 million purchase in its flagship fund.
This follows a period of cautious price action, but the latest figures show BlackRock and Fidelity both reporting net new inflows. Options market open interest for ETH has also quietly doubled since mid-month.
According to Farside, US ETF products for Ethereum have matched Bitcoin’s pace this week, temporarily narrowing the gap in institutional accumulation.
What’s notable is not just the size of these flows, but their persistence. BlackRock’s allocation and broader ETF buying are driving liquidity and expanding the investor base beyond crypto-native circles. Bloomberg and CoinGecko report that ETF activity now accounts for one in every four ETH traded on US markets.
Stablecoins: Ethereum’s $1.4 Trillion Moment
If there’s a metric that screams network dominance, it’s stablecoin transfer volume on Ethereum. According to Token Terminal, as of October, USDC transfer volume hit an all-time high of $1.41 trillion, with days still left in the month.
The explosion in on-chain settlement, paired with record DEX volumes and DeFi TVL stabilizing above $65 billion, reinforces Ethereum’s reputation as the backbone of digital finance and the preferred home of stablecoins.
Is ETH Price Ready to Run?
This undervaluation, the ETF inflows, and stablecoin surge have led analysts like crypto trader Ted Pillows to argue that Ethereum has not topped out yet. He believes the ETH price will reach between $8,000 and $10,000 this cycle.
That echoes the viewpoints of Ethereum bulls Tom Lee and Arthur Hayes, who both recently called for an end-of-year ETH price between $10,000 and $12,000.
Pillows, whose cycle calls gained a following after accurately predicting the last halving rally, notes that ETH has consolidated for four years. Key risk ratios indicate room for upward expansion. If mean reversion even halfway plays out and ETF inflows keep building, the ETH price could see aggressive moves past $6,000 from here.
What’s Holding ETH Price Back?
Despite all the bullish signals, a feeling of risk aversion remains. Crypto market prices are down across the board today as volatility ahead of the Fed rate cut decision persists. The outlook for the US-China trade deal still looms uncertain, and risk assets are bearing the brunt.
Options books show traders hedging both upside and downside. That reflects a sort of cautiously optimistic outlook and a wait-and-see attitude until macro clarity plays out.
Yet the Ethereum fundamentals keep stacking up. Supply is shrinking post-merge, deflationary dynamics are baked in, and real-world institutional demand is at its highest since Q2 2021.
Conclusion: Ethereum at a Crossroads
What does all this mean for the ETH price? For now, Ethereum may wear the undervaluation badge a bit longer. But if ETF momentum sustains and DEX volume stays high, the price could shift upward with velocity.
The current discount to Bitcoin isn’t a sign of weakness; it’s a springboard for risk-tolerant traders and long-term allocators betting on mean reversion and on-chain demand. In crypto, cycles often end not with loud reversals but with relentless re-pricing as liquidity finds its next home. All eyes now turn to ETF flows and how quickly institutions will seize a historic window.