ECB Tells Banks to Prepare For Russian Cyber Attacks, Bitcoin Unaffected – Trustnodes

Banks have been conducting cyber war games to test their ability to fend off an attack, Reuters reports according to unnamed sources.

That follows a warning last month by the New York Department of Financial Services of retaliatory cyber attacks should Russia invade Ukraine and trigger U.S. sanctions.

Just what sort of attack they might cary out is not speculated, with the banking system being a bit of a fortress when it comes to digital security.

Bitcoin is unlikely to be affected in any event, not least because it is estimated Russian individuals and entities hold between $67 billion to $200 billion in bitcoin.

Anatoly Aksakov, head of the committee of the Russian lower house of parliament on the financial market, said in December that 5 trillion rubles have been invested by Russians in crypto.

More speculative estimates based on IP analysis put it at 16.5 trillion rubles, worth $214 billion.

That’s a lot of money either way, especially for a country where median wages are just $250 a month and the minimum wage is at $170.

Unlike national fiat currencies, bitcoin is global so any state sponsored attack on crypto exchanges wouldn’t affect any one country, but the entire world, including Russians.

Which is why it is unlikely in our view, and which is why bitcoin probably wouldn’t be affected if there is a further invasion of Ukraine.

Except where supply and demand is concerned as an incursion you’d think would affect the national fiat money of both Russia and Ukraine.

We already had a taste of that recently when markets thought for a bit that maybe they’re really going in, sending their ruble down 10% and their stocks crashing before their foreign minister Sergei Lavrov announced a diplomatic meeting in the Normandy format.

That was before anything had actually happened. If anything does happen, then Rub may fly down to maybe 100 per dollar or worse, 150, while stocks may even crash 70% because you’d think every foreign investor would get out or be forced to get out.

Sanctions are being prepared in secret in the event of an incursion, so we don’t know what they would be, but they have been described as the biggest in history. Modern history presumably.

All of which suggests you’d expect a flocking to bitcoin, both in Russia and Ukraine, probably starting the very moment a decision is made if it is to further invade as there would probably be insider trading, if not by the men then their wives.

So bitcoin would probably know first, but it’s very unlikely anything happen at least until February 15th, next Tuesday.

That’s when Russia’s president Vladimir Putin gets to meet Olaf Scholz, the German chancellor who in this case you’d think will be representing all of Europe, not just Germany.

That’s an economy some ten times the size of Russia, with a far bigger population, and a far more advanced sophistication, which presumably Scholz will communicate very clearly when they meet.

Any action before then is unlikely as it would be a huge insult to both Germany and all of Europe, with it to be seen just how that meeting goes.

Meanwhile some six Russian warships are headed to the Black Sea while there are rumors UK may supply anti-ship missiles to Ukraine.

The British foreign secretary is to meet her Russian counterpart tomorrow at the same time as the Normandy format continues in Berlin.

All this so that Ukraine can keep being a democracy, with a European style rule of law and much else as is fitting for a European country, with a recent poll suggesting the majority of EU citizens are in favor of defending it.

Poles are in favor of even going in, if there is an incursion, presumably because otherwise they’d be next as they would be surrounded with Russian troops in Belarus, Kalingrad, and what would then also be Ukraine.

Such incursion may also destabilize Romania, as well as Hungary and Slovakia, maybe the Balkans too and you get a whole big mess down the line while the Russian population is a bit fed up with decades of fighting in Syria, Libya, now in Mali, previously in Chechnya, in Georgia, in Moldova, and they even briefly sent troops to Kazakhstan.

Expanding what already looks like a very stretched army to Ukraine sounds deluded, which is why some think this is just Russia trying to force Europe and US to talk to them, when previously they didn’t really want to because Putin has been antagonistic and a destabilizing force in Europe.

But if he does just want talks then you’d expect troops to get off on February 15th with it a somewhat sad state of affairs for Russia that they need to showcase ships shorter than their tables to even get rich European countries to talk to them.

It could have been different of course, but Putin effectively coup-ed the country by taking power to never relinquish it again, with Europe fooled at the time in thinking things may get better, when they only got worse.

And now what was and hopefully still remains a great peace for all of Europe and even growing prosperity for Russia, has descended into what wasn’t easily foreseeable and would have gotten laughed at, talks of a potential war with Russia in Europe itself.

That’s the tragic and treacherous transformation you get when the people have no say over their country’s direction in free and fair elections because deluded old men keep thinking they’re still young and in touch, when they’re destroying their country and the livelihoods of the young.