Cryptocurrency markets face conflicting signals as multiple indicators point to different directions. The Bitcoin Accumulation Trend Score has dropped near zero, showing large holders are either selling or pausing new purchases.
This metric traditionally helps gauge market sentiment among substantial investors, suggesting current caution at higher price levels.
Adding to market uncertainty, a long-dormant Bitcoin wallet became active after six years, transferring 500 BTC (worth $46.87 million) to Coinbase Prime.
The wallet originally received these coins when Bitcoin traded at $7,000, representing a substantial profit at current prices. Such movements from old wallets often precede increased market volatility.
Economic Data and BTC Response
The latest US Non-Farm Payrolls report exceeded expectations, with 256,000 new jobs versus the predicted 164,000. The unemployment rate came in at 4.1%, better than the forecast 4.2%.
While these numbers typically support asset prices, Bitcoin faced selling pressure after the release.
– Advertisement –
Analyst Karan Singh Arora attributes this disconnect to market manipulation rather than fundamental factors.
This jobs data creates an interesting dynamic for crypto markets. Strong employment numbers could lead the Federal Reserve to maintain higher interest rates longer, potentially limiting crypto price gains.
However, the data also shows economic strength, which often supports risk assets like cryptocurrencies in the longer term.
CryptoElites sees the market entering the second phase of a major altcoin rally. This view aligns with historical patterns where Bitcoin price stability creates conditions for altcoin growth.
The analyst emphasizes patience during this transition, noting how early sellers often miss the largest gains during altcoin cycles.
Bitcoin Trading Implications
The current market setup requires careful position sizing and risk management. With large Bitcoin holders pausing accumulation and old wallets becoming active, traders may face increased price swings.
These conditions often create opportunities in altcoins as capital rotates between different market sectors.
For risk management, traders should note several key price levels. Bitcoin needs to maintain support above recent lows to keep market confidence intact. A break below these levels could trigger broader market weakness.
However, as long as Bitcoin holds its range, altcoins may continue their upward pattern regardless of short-term Bitcoin price moves.
The movement of old Bitcoin wallets offers perspective on market cycles. These early investors bought Bitcoin at $7,000, held through multiple cycles, and are now taking profits at $94,000.
This pattern of long-term holders selling into strength typically marks mid-cycle periods rather than major tops, supporting the case for continued upside in 2025.
What to Make of Bitcoin’s Current Movement?
Several patterns emerge from the current market data that traders should evaluate.
Bitcoin’s price movements after strong economic data raise a key question: Are traders selling due to rate expectations, or is this normal profit-taking at higher levels?
Understanding this distinction helps with position sizing and risk management.
The movement of old Bitcoin wallets provides useful context. When early holders who bought at $7,000 sell at $94,000, they create temporary pressure but also demonstrate the scale of possible returns in crypto markets.
This leads to another important question: Does selling from early holders create opportunities for new positions, or should traders wait for prices to stabilize?
Source: https://www.thecoinrepublic.com/2025/01/11/dormant-whale-moves-46m-is-bitcoins-accumulation-cycle-at-a-crossroads/