Bitcoin’s long-standing rhythm of boom-and-bust cycles may be losing its predictive power, according to new insights from 10x Research.
The firm argues that the cryptocurrency’s historical models—especially the once-popular stock-to-flow (S2F) theory—no longer provide an accurate reflection of current market dynamics, as the asset matures and investor behavior evolves.
The report, released on October 28, 2025, highlights what analysts describe as “diminishing returns” for Bitcoin. While such a trend is often viewed as a normal symptom of maturity for any growing financial asset, 10x Research says it raises deeper questions about whether Bitcoin’s famous four-year cycle—tied to its halving events—still holds any real predictive value.
Is Bitcoin Now Too Expensive for Retail — and Could It Break the Cycle?
Bitcoin is suffering from diminishing returns.
While many view this as a natural sign of maturity, it raises deeper questions about the validity of the so-called Bitcoin cycle theory.
Although the… pic.twitter.com/tbYBxZr83i
— 10x Research (@10x_Research) October 28, 2025
Maturity or Exhaustion? The Debate Deepens
Bitcoin has historically followed a repeating pattern: a halving event reduces supply growth, enthusiasm builds, a parabolic rally follows, and eventually, the market collapses into a multi-month correction. This cyclical structure has shaped both investor sentiment and institutional forecasts for more than a decade.
However, 10x Research suggests that the market’s increasing sophistication and changing macroeconomic backdrop may be breaking this pattern. The analysts note that drawing firm conclusions from just three or four past cycles offers limited statistical credibility. “We are now at a point where Bitcoin’s evolution cannot be captured by simplistic historical repetition,” the report implies, urging investors to move away from overreliance on halving-based forecasts.
Stock-to-Flow Model’s Decline in Credibility
Once heralded as the gold standard for Bitcoin valuation, the stock-to-flow model aimed to quantify scarcity by comparing the existing circulating supply with the rate of new issuance. During Bitcoin’s early years, this framework appeared remarkably accurate, mapping each halving event to an exponential price rise.
But 10x Research points out that the model’s reliability collapsed during the 2021 cycle, when it predicted a surge beyond $100,000 that never materialized. According to the firm, the flaw lay in the model’s overemphasis on supply while disregarding Bitcoin’s demand-driven characteristics—particularly the influence of institutional flows, macroeconomic liquidity, and retail participation.
Despite this, the research group notes that their modified version of the stock-to-flow framework successfully identified the bear-market bottom in October 2022. This outcome, they argue, demonstrates that while the model may still hold limited tactical utility, it is no longer suitable for long-term projections in a changing market structure.
New Models, New Insights
The firm’s latest data suggests that Bitcoin’s price trajectory now aligns less with rigid halving expectations and more with demand elasticity, macro trends, and broader adoption patterns. In their July 2023 analysis, 10x Research projected that the current cycle could carry Bitcoin toward $125,000—a more modest target than the million-dollar narratives popularized by some analysts.
Since then, their perspective has evolved further. As Bitcoin’s market cap grows and volatility compresses, the potential for extreme parabolic rallies diminishes. The firm emphasizes that this moderation is not necessarily bearish but indicative of a natural transition into a more stable, mature asset class.
Chart Patterns Indicate Waning Post-Halving Power
Supporting their argument, 10x Research published a logarithmic regression chart illustrating Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory since 2011. The visualization highlights each halving phase, marking prior peaks at approximately $505 in 2014, $9,074 in 2017, and $121,059 in 2021 (on a logarithmic scale). While each cycle produced exponential gains, the rate of return between halvings has clearly tapered.
The chart also raises an intriguing question: is a bear market now emerging 400 days after the most recent halving? If history rhymes rather than repeats, the pattern could suggest shorter, more compressed bull markets—less explosive than before but potentially more sustainable over time.
Psychological and Structural Shifts in the Market
Beyond technical models, the report underscores how shifting investor psychology may be reshaping Bitcoin’s behavior. As retail participation declines in relative influence and institutional capital dominates, the market may respond more to macroeconomic factors—such as global interest rates, risk appetite, and dollar liquidity—than to internal supply events.
10x Research characterizes this as the “institutionalization of Bitcoin,” where its value responds to capital cycles rather than block reward halvings. This marks a sharp contrast from the earlier era of speculative retail booms driven by viral excitement and scarcity narratives.
A More Realistic Future for Bitcoin
While some analysts continue to promote extreme price forecasts—citing targets as high as $1 million—the report cautions that such projections rely on outdated logic. Instead, it proposes a more data-driven approach that combines on-chain activity, macroeconomic conditions, and behavioral indicators.
According to 10x Research, this recalibrated methodology aligns more closely with how Bitcoin actually performs in today’s complex financial environment. “The evolution of cycle dynamics reflects not a loss of faith, but a transition into a new phase of market maturity,” the analysts write.
Ultimately, the firm sees this as a healthy development—one that moves Bitcoin from speculative cycles toward sustainable valuation patterns, guided less by hype and more by long-term adoption.
The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com does not endorse or recommend any specific investment strategy or cryptocurrency. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Alex is an experienced financial journalist and cryptocurrency enthusiast. With over 8 years of experience covering the crypto, blockchain, and fintech industries, he is well-versed in the complex and ever-evolving world of digital assets. His insightful and thought-provoking articles provide readers with a clear picture of the latest developments and trends in the market. His approach allows him to break down complex ideas into accessible and in-depth content. Follow his publications to stay up to date with the most important trends and topics.
Source: https://coindoo.com/diminishing-returns-signal-a-new-era-for-bitcoin-analysts-warn/