 
 
Bitcoin (BTC) traded range-bound most of Thursday despite an attempt to rebound over the previous day.
Notably, for the past two or so weeks, Bitcoin has been consolidating between $95,000 and $97,000, struggling to break through key resistance at $97,000 after retreating from its January peak of $109,300.
Meanwhile, amid this muted price action, analysts remain divided on Bitcoin’s next move. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju predicts a potential drop to $77,000 before the bull market resumes. Drawing from historical data, the pundit argues that such a decline would not signify the end of the bullish cycle.
“I don’t think we’ll enter a bear market this year. We’re still in a bull cycle. The price would eventually go up, but the range seems broad. I personally think that the bull cycle could continue even with a -30% dip from ATH (e.g., $110,000_$77,000), as seen in past cycles.” he tweeted Wednesday.
Notably, Ju’s analysis was based on the realized price metric, which assesses the average cost basis of Bitcoin holders. According to his data, Bitcoin’s realized price among ETF custodians and major institutional players sits around $89,000, while Binance traders and mining companies have average entry points at $59,000 and $57,000, respectively.
 
Historically, when prices fell below the breakeven level for large miners, it marked the final leg of a market correction before a new rally began. Ju cited past downturns in May 2022, March 2020, and November 2018 as examples of this pattern repeating.
Elsewhere, some analysts warn that tightening fiat liquidity and uncertainty around U.S. economic policies could put downward pressure on Bitcoin’s price.
Recently, former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes suggested that Bitcoin could drop to the $70,000–$75,000 range due to disappointment in the Trump administration’s stance on the asset. He argued that the key driver of this decline would be investors’ realization that the current U.S. president’s policies on Bitcoin are largely unchanged from those of his predecessors.
Meanwhile, macroeconomic factors and the post-halving cycle also play a significant role in Bitcoin’s potential retracement. Notably, CryptoQuant’s Timo Oinonen remained optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory, pointing out that following the April 2024 halving, Bitcoin’s price has only risen 63%, leaving room for further gains.
“When looking at BTC’s halving of 2020 and its subsequent spot price peak, the asset climbed a total of 686% between the 11th of May 2020 and the 8th of November 2021. Between the latest halving on 20th April of 2024 and the recent ATH, BTC only ascended 63%. Although bitcoin’s power-law model and law of diminishing returns suggest a more moderate future price performance, the 63% appreciation mirrors an unfinished halving cycle, with a plenty of upside,” he predicted, highlighting the historical tendency for Bitcoin to rally in Q4.
BTC traded at $95,695 at press time, reflecting a 1.43% surge in the past 24 hours.
Source: https://zycrypto.com/cryptoquant-ceo-predicts-bitcoin-crashing-down-to-77000-before-bull-market-resumption/