Countdown To $4B BTC, ETH Options Expiry: Will Markets React?

The crypto market is bracing for a critical moment as $3.98 billion worth of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) options are set to expire today.

With $3.4 billion in BTC contracts and $581.57 million tied to ETH, traders are closely watching for potential price swings. Historically, such high-stakes expirations have sparked short-term market turbulence, and today’s event could be no different.

According to data from Deribit, Bitcoin’s expiring options involve 38,566 contracts, down from 48,794 last week.

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Ethereum follows with 189,018 contracts, a drop from last week’s 294,380. Despite the recent pullbacks in BTC and ETH prices—down 2.46% and 5.43%, respectively—market sentiment appears cautiously optimistic.

Bitcoin’s maximum pain price, where most options expire worthless, is pegged at $79,500, with a put-to-call ratio of 0.85.

This suggests more traders are betting on price gains than losses. Ethereum shows similar optimism, with a maximum pain price of $3,000 and a put-to-call ratio of 0.92.

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The maximum pain point often acts as a magnet for prices nearing options expiry, intensifying speculation as traders adjust their positions. Crypto influencer Wise Advice cautioned,

“The market could be very volatile, so trade with caution.”

Despite this, data shows a prevailing bullish sentiment. Put-to-call ratios below 1 for both BTC and ETH indicate a higher volume of call options—bets on price increases—compared to put options.

Meanwhile, the broader market outlook remains divided. According to Greeks.live, “Some of the larger traders heading for the sky to go long, while more traders are currently on the short side of the market.”

This polarization could exacerbate volatility as traders position themselves for post-expiry price moves.

What Lies Ahead for BTC and ETH?

As today’s options expire, traders expect BTC and ETH to gravitate toward their maximum pain prices, potentially triggering a correction. However, this is just the beginning.

A larger wave of crypto options, worth $11.8 billion for Bitcoin alone, is due for expiry by December 27, marking another pivotal moment for the market.

Historically, Bitcoin bull runs tend to peak toward the end of the year, often spilling into early January.

This timing adds weight to predictions of BTC testing $100,000 before 2025. At the same time, bears are likely to intensify efforts to keep prices contained.

Today’s expiration may lead to heightened volatility, but markets typically stabilize soon after. Both Bitcoin and Ethereum trajectories into 2025 will likely be shaped by these key expiry events, as traders balance optimism with caution.

For now, all eyes are on how BTC and ETH respond to today’s expiration, with the potential for short-term turbulence and long-term strategic positioning setting the stage for what could be a historic close to the year