Bitcoin has been stuck in a narrow range between $107K and $110K for nearly a week, but upcoming U.S. economic events could shake things loose.
All eyes are on two key dates: the release of Federal Reserve minutes on July 9 and the FOMC meeting scheduled for July 30. While most investors don’t expect a rate cut this month, falling inflation is fueling speculation that the Fed could change its stance.
Data from Truflation shows inflation in the U.S. has plunged from 2.27% to 1.70% in under two weeks—just ahead of the CPI release on July 15. If official numbers confirm this decline, markets could quickly reprice expectations, making a surprise rate cut more likely.
So far, traders are pricing in no change this month, with 95% of forecasts pointing to a hold. But if the Fed hints at shifting sentiment in the July 9 minutes and inflation data continues to cool, it may set the stage for a September cut—currently expected by 61% of market watchers.
Technically, Bitcoin shows signs of a potential breakout. A bullish pennant on the 4-hour chart suggests BTC could rise nearly 5% if it breaks above $108,547, potentially pushing toward a new all-time high near $113,913. Momentum indicators like RSI (currently 51) and the Awesome Oscillator are turning more favorable, signaling that bears are losing steam.
In short: If inflation data surprises to the downside and rate-cut speculation intensifies, Bitcoin could rally sharply. But if macro conditions stay unchanged, BTC may remain trapped in its current range through July.
Alexander Stefanov
Reporter at Coindoo
Alex is an experienced finance journalist and a cryptocurrency and blockchain enthusiast. With over 8 years of experience covering the crypto, blockchain and fintech industries, he deeply understands the complex and constantly evolving world of digital assets. His insightful and thought-provoking articles provide readers with a clear picture of the latest developments and trends in the market. His passionate approach allows him to break down complex ideas into accessible and insightful content. Follow up on his content to be up to date with the most important trends and topics.
Source: https://coindoo.com/could-a-surprise-fed-cut-send-bitcoin-to-new-highs/