Commerce Secretary Lutnick Rejects Recession Concerns as Bitcoin Falls

TLDR

• Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick dismisses recession fears, claiming Trump’s tariffs will drive $1.3 trillion in new investment
• Bitcoin fell 7% to $80,000 while recession odds on Polymarket increased to 41%
• Trump described tariffs as a “period of transition” and didn’t rule out a recession
• Tariffs on foreign goods may increase prices, but Lutnick claims American products will become cheaper
• Canada/Mexico tariff exemptions expire April 2 when Trump plans to implement reciprocal tariffs on other nations

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has firmly rejected suggestions that the United States is heading toward a recession, despite growing market concerns and a downturn in cryptocurrency values.

“There’s going to be no recession in America,” Lutnick declared on a Sunday edition of Meet the Press. He pushed back against warnings from Wall Street institutions like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs about potential economic contraction.

The Commerce Secretary’s confidence stands in contrast to President Trump’s more cautious stance. When asked directly about the possibility of a recession this year, Trump avoided a direct prediction, stating, “I hate to predict things like that.”

Trump acknowledged economic challenges ahead. “There is a period of transition, because what we’re doing is very big,” the President said during a Fox News interview.

Lutnick defended the administration’s tariff strategy as an economic catalyst. He argued that Trump’s approach will force other countries to lower their trade barriers and drive $1.3 trillion in new investment in the American economy.

“We’re going to unleash America out to the world,” Lutnick said. He predicted that the next two years would see extraordinary economic growth.

Tariff Strategy – Risk Or Reward

While admitting that tariffs may make foreign goods more expensive, Lutnick framed this as part of a broader effort to balance the budget. He claimed this would lower borrowing costs by driving interest rates down.

“When you balance the budget… you drive interest rates down 150 basis points. Mortgages come smashing down,” he stated during the interview.

The Commerce Secretary also promised that grocery prices would start decreasing in early April. He emphasized that American products will become cheaper even as foreign goods may cost more.

Cryptocurrency traders appear less optimistic about the economic outlook. Bitcoin fell 7% on Sunday, dropping to $80,000 and approaching its 2025 low of $78,000.

Other major cryptocurrencies followed Bitcoin’s downward trend. Ether, Solana, and XRP declined, while meme coins like Dogecoin and Cardano fell by nearly 12%.

Prediction markets are showing increased concern about an economic slowdown. On Polymarket, the odds of a U.S. recession in 2025 have jumped to 41%, representing a 16% increase in recent weeks.

Economic indicators present a mixed picture. The latest U.S. jobs report showed 151,000 jobs added in February, roughly matching expectations, though the unemployment rate increased to 4.1%.

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model is forecasting a negative 2.8% growth rate for the first quarter. This stands in stark contrast to Lutnick’s bullish economic predictions.

Trump’s planned implementation of reciprocal tariffs is scheduled for April 2. The President indicated to Fox News that he doesn’t plan to grant Canada and Mexico further exemptions beyond this date.