Collapse of Bitcoin, or simple correction?

The price of BTC has dropped in recent days, and there are already those who fear that it is a true and proper collapse of Bitcoin. 

To tell the truth, only the incompetent can believe that what is happening is a real collapse, but unfortunately, there are many incompetents who pontificate about the trend of Bitcoin. 

The apparent collapse of the price of Bitcoin

Last Friday, November 22, 2024, the price of Bitcoin reached a new all-time high above $99,600.

Many thought it was ready to break the $100,000 wall, but instead, starting from Saturday, it began to fall. 

First it climbed back to $97,000, then on Sunday it fell below $96,000, and yesterday even below $95,000. 

The decline is continuing today, so much so that it has even dropped below $92,000. 

At this rate, it could drop even to $90,000, or perhaps even to $87,000. 

To tell the truth, there are analysts who argue that the decline could continue even below this threshold, but there are really few who predict a drop below 80,000$. 

The fact is that before November 6, the day of the announcement of Donald Trump’s victory in this year’s US presidential elections, the price of Bitcoin had never been above even $75,000, so even a drop to $80,000 would mean staying above the previous all-time highs before the elections.

Therefore, at first glance, this may seem like a collapse to inexperienced eyes, but in reality, at most, it could be a retracement, at least for now. 

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The correction

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Among analysts, however, a second hypothesis is circulating. 

It should be noted that the trend of Bitcoin’s price in the long term tends to be correlated precisely with the US presidential elections, so much so that until now, after all the US presidential elections that have taken place in the past since Bitcoin has existed, the price of BTC in the following 12 months has always risen significantly.

The fact is that both in November 2016, when Trump won for the first time, and in November 2020, when Biden won, shortly before the end of the month the price of BTC recorded a correction, after having risen in the previous weeks. 

In particular, in 2020 there was a significant growth after Trump’s victory with timing very similar to that of this year, followed by a quick correction of about 10%, which ended on the 27th of the month. Starting from the 29th, the price of Bitcoin began to rise again.

One of the hypotheses circulating among analysts is that it might do a similar thing this year as well. 

Therefore, a drop to around $90,000, or slightly below, after having risen to almost $100,000, and then perhaps starting to grow again from Thursday, November 28.

Furthermore, this year Thursday, November 28, is also Thanksgiving Day in the USA, and often during bullrun the Thanksgiving weekend helps the crypto market to perform well. The US stock exchanges will be closed on Thursday for the holiday, so the focus might shift precisely to the crypto markets. 

It is therefore not to be excluded that the correction underway could conclude between today and tomorrow more or less around $90,000, and that from Thursday the bullrun of Bitcoin could resume. 

The BTC price forecasts

Always at the end of 2020, the key point was the $20,000 of the maximum peak of the previous cycle, recorded in December 2017. 

November 2020 began with the price of Bitcoin at around $15,000, and continued with a rise to over $19,000. In other words, it failed to break through the wall of $20,000, and on November 25, the correction began. 

This ended on November 26 at around $17,000, thus with a decrease of 10%, but starting from the 28th the bullrun resumed. By early December, it had again risen above $19,000, and the surpassing of $20,000 occurred on the 16th of the same month. 

Something like this could happen again this year, and given that in December 2020 when the wall of $20,000 was broken, the price then rose to almost $30,000, this time it could also continue beyond $100,000, perhaps reaching $110,000 or $120,000. 

It should, however, be specified that these are only projections based on past trends, and not actual forecasts. Analysts, on the other hand, seem more cautious with their forecasts, which currently overall seem less optimistic than that. 

Moreover, when the dollar will probably start to weaken, perhaps in January, the growth of Bitcoin could be further favored, so talking about a bear in this moment is at least premature, if not completely wrong. 

However, if the price of BTC were to soon fall back below $75,000, then it could indeed be time to start talking about a possible bear collapse.