Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley stated on social media that the long-discussed “four-year cycle” model for Bitcoin (BTC) is no longer valid. According to Horsley, current market behavior has disrupted this pattern, ushering in a new era.
Horsley stated that the majority of investors believe 2026 will be a bearish year for Bitcoin, as per the four-year cycle. The CEO argued that this expectation has a knock-on effect and explained the process in three stages:
First effect: Investors want to avoid risk by selling in 2025 because they believe a decline will occur in 2026.
Second impact: This early sell-off turns 2025 into a bearish year and disrupts the four-year cycle itself.
Third impact: Because the cycle has been broken, 2026 now becomes an undefined year—“open season.”
Horsley has previously stated that the four-year cycle model is “a product of the old crypto era.” He stated that the introduction of Bitcoin ETFs, new institutional participants, and the changing market structure have created a completely new dynamic. According to the CEO, Bitcoin has been in a bear market for approximately six months, and this period is nearing its end.
“The common view is that four-year cycles continue. However, the reality is that this belief inherently disrupts the cycle by shaping investor behavior,” Horsley said, reminding that Bitcoin is still 2.5% higher than it was at the beginning of the year as of 2025.
*This is not investment advice.