 
 
Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson believes the long-standing idea of Bitcoin’s four-year market cycle may soon become obsolete.
In an interview with CNBC, Hoskinson argued that as institutional players like BlackRock and Fidelity deepen their involvement in the market, Bitcoin’s historical rhythm of boom-and-bust tied to halving events could fade away.
For more than a decade, Bitcoin’s price action has followed a familiar four-year pattern, rising sharply after each halving, reaching new highs, and then retracing by as much as 85% before stabilizing. Hoskinson suggested that this predictable pattern no longer fits the realities of a maturing market.
“I don’t think we’re gonna see those kinds of cycles anymore because there is too much money in the space and there is too much market structure,” he said, adding that complex financial products like synthetics and derivatives will dampen volatility.
Market maturity alters Bitcoin’s trajectory
According to Hoskinson, the inflow of institutional capital will create “stronger floors and less volatility,” gradually pushing Bitcoin toward more stable price behavior. He also predicted that this stability will play a crucial role in onboarding the next half a billion users to crypto, with regulatory developments and risk-managed products reinforcing investor confidence.
 
Despite his skepticism about Bitcoin’s four-year rhythm, Hoskinson believes altcoin seasons will persist. He recalled how the last cycle revolved around the search for an “Ethereum killer,” spawning projects like Solana and Polkadot.
In the next phase, he expects privacy-oriented platforms to take center stage, highlighting Cardano’s own Midnight project, which he says addresses issues such as oracles and stablecoins while strengthening the Cardano ecosystem.
Not everyone agrees with Hoskinson’s outlook.
Analysts like João Wedson, Alphractal CEO and verified CryptoQuant analyst, argue that the four-year fractal cycle remains intact, pointing to Bitcoin’s recent market behavior as proof.
Others, like popular investor Ted Pillows, believe the absence of a euphoric blow-off top this time signals an evolving, liquidity-driven market that could see Bitcoin extend its rally into 2026.
Source: https://zycrypto.com/cardanos-charles-hoskinson-chimes-in-on-bitcoins-4-year-cycle-discourse/