This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, subscribe.
It seems fitting that bitcoin’s rise above $103,000 came in the final month of a groundbreaking year for the asset.
You already know about the first US spot bitcoin ETFs in January and Trump’s election win a month ago. Then there was the president-elect’s selection this week of Paul Atkins as SEC chair (who many deem to be a crypto advocate). And Fed Chair Jerome Powell even recently compared bitcoin to gold.
The fact that gold’s market cap is still nine times larger than bitcoin’s (about $18T to $2T) “should offer additional insight into how much more room there is for bitcoin to grow from current levels,” LMAX Group market strategist Joel Kruger said in an email.
Momentum driving BTC past the psychological six-figure price mark can beget more momentum — albeit not without volatility.
“It not only validates the long-term belief of the community but also signals to institutions, corporations, sovereign funds, skeptics and sidelined investors alike that bitcoin has entered a new phase of adoption and recognition as a store of value and a transformative asset class,” according to 21Shares crypto research strategist Matt Mena.
Bitcoin had dipped to about $99,000 by 3 pm ET on Thursday.
A key next target is $110,000, Mena added, citing Deribit data that shows the majority of Jan. 31, 2025 call option contract volume is concentrated at that price level.
Industry watchers have also pointed to BTC’s history of price swings to temper mania from the most bullish of bulls.
After the early years of bitcoin, the road to $100,000 included a rise to $18,000 in 2017 followed by a plummet to around $4,000 the following year. A surge to nearly $70,000 in late-2021 was followed by a severe downward move to $16,000 in 2022.
While optimism is high that the Trump Administration and a crypto-friendly Congress will help spur crypto regulatory and legislative clarity, Nansen principal research analyst Aurelie Barthere said those might not pan out as expected.
He said: “Once we witness the first policies and decisions from the Trump Administration in January, there could be some risk of disappointed expectations, especially if the agenda prioritizes tariff and immigration-related policies first.”
Start your day with top crypto insights from David Canellis and Katherine Ross. Subscribe to the Empire newsletter.
Explore the growing intersection between crypto, macroeconomics, policy and finance with Ben Strack, Casey Wagner and Felix Jauvin. Subscribe to the Forward Guidance newsletter.
Get alpha directly in your inbox with the 0xResearch newsletter — market highlights, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, and more.
The Lightspeed newsletter is all things Solana, in your inbox, every day. Subscribe to daily Solana news from Jack Kubinec and Jeff Albus.
Source: https://blockworks.co/news/btc-price-predictions-post-100k