BTC Weekly Analysis Feb 22

Bitcoin consolidates in a narrow trading range ($67,809 – $68,698) with a slight weekly decline of -0.19%, while the short-term downtrend maintains dominance, but positive histogram on MACD and low RSI (37.46) signal potential base formation. Market structure creates opportunity for upside reversal if critical supports ($64,323) hold, but carries risk of deepening to $49,000s on downside break.

BTC Weekly Market Summary

In the big picture, Bitcoin remains in the extended consolidation phase observed since early 2026; although weekly change is minimal (-0.19%), the squeeze around $68,000 reflects market structure uncertainty. Volume profile remains stable at $8.86 billion level, and you can check the BTC detailed spot analysis page for spot market data. In the macro context, the 12 spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US recorded strong inflows during the shortened week due to Presidents’ Day holiday (February 20 data), indicating continued institutional demand. On the other hand, while Google searches like ‘Will Bitcoin go to zero?’ are increasing, institutional buyers accumulating BTC supports macro optimism. For futures market, BTC futures market data is critically important. Although the overall trend is downward, the bullish MACD signal in momentum and bearish short-term structure below EMA20 ($70,714) mandates a cautious wait-and-see approach for position traders. In terms of market cycle, this narrow range could be the final stages of accumulation phase or the start of distribution; visit our BTC and other analyses main page.

Trend Structure and Market Phases

Long-Term Trend Analysis

Long-term trend structure (1W/1M timeframes) shows Bitcoin squeezed in the down channel from late 2025 peaks (over 50% retracement); primary trend confirmed as downtrend, but $60,000 psychological support has blocked trend break. Market structure remains intact with higher lows (e.g., around $64,323), but bullish reversal remains weak unless $77,205 resistance filter is breached. In macro cycle context, ETF inflows and institutional accumulation support long-term accumulation phase; RSI at 37.46 level near oversold region, while positive MACD histogram in momentum gives early warning signal for trend change. For position traders, as long as the trend remains solid, the $74,487 – $78,962 resistance band should be monitored as critical inflection points.

Accumulation/Distribution Analysis

Weekly volume profile shows narrow range characteristics of accumulation phase: low volatility ($889 range) and stable volume indicate smart money quietly buying. Distribution patterns not yet dominant, as there are no high-volume sales; however, closes below EMA20 increase distribution risk. Institutional ETF flows (February 20 inflows) strengthen the accumulation argument, while Google FUD searches could trigger retail panic selling. Overall phase: At the transitional accumulation/distribution threshold, accumulation resumption expected if $67,524 support holds with confluence.

Multi-Timeframe Confluence

Daily Chart View

On the daily chart (1D), bearish bias dominates with 3 supports/4 resistances: price pulled back without testing $68,221 resistance (84/100 score), while $67,524 support is key at 68/100 score. RSI 37.46 shows divergence, MACD positive histogram turns daily momentum bullish; short-term bearish structure below EMA20 continues. 11 strong levels confluence (1D/3D/1W) squeezes $68,053 price – upside break to $74,487, downside to $64,323 possible.

Weekly Chart View

Weekly (1W) view shows neutral consolidation with 3S/3R balance: $67,809 low confirmed as weekly support, but $68,698 high failed to make new high. Trend filter bearish ($77,205 resistance), but $60,000 long-term base confluence strong (60/100). With weekly MACD bullish signal, multi-TF confluence awaits $68,221 break for upside bias; on downside, $64,323 cluster (71/100) first test point.

Critical Decision Points

Main levels to determine direction: Supports $64,323 (71/100, main base), $67,524 (68/100, short-term), $60,000 (psychological, 60/100). Resistances $68,221 (84/100, first hurdle), $74,487 (63/100), $78,962 (64/100). Break of these levels redefines trend structure: above $68,221 creates bullish confluence, below $64,323 triggers deep decline. Volume spikes and ETF flows will be decisive at these points.

Weekly Strategy Recommendation

In Upside Case

Bullish scenario activates on close above $68,221 resistance: First target $74,487, then $78,962 and strategic upside $85,000. Position: Long entry on $68,221 breakout, stop-loss below $67,524; R/R 1:3+ (risk $1k, reward $15k+). Confluence: Daily MACD bullish + weekly higher low confirmation. ETF inflows support momentum.

In Downside Case

Bearish scenario triggered by break of $67,524 or $64,323: Targets $60,000, then $49,000 downside risk. Position: Short entry on break confirmation, stop above $68,221; R/R optimized. Market structure downtrend intact, aligned with EMA20 bearish filter. FUD increase could accelerate.

Conclusion: Key Points for Next Week

To watch next week: $68,221 resistance break (bull trigger), $64,323 support test (bear confirmation), ETF flows and volume profile. Momentum confluence (RSI/MACD) critical for reversal signals; position traders should remain patient in narrow range waiting for R/R setups. $77,205 filter required for long-term trend change.