BTC Recovery Faces Uncertainty as Long Term Holders Remain Cautious

A Bitcoin recovery will be especially unlikely if long-term holders continue selling. Despite the concerns about BTC’s next move, Mexican billionaire Ricardo Salinas recently increased his Bitcoin exposure, now allocating 70% of his portfolio to the asset. Japanese investment firm Metaplanet also expanded its Bitcoin holdings with a $44 million purchase, pushing its total holdings to 2,888 BTC. The firm is still very committed to aggressive accumulation despite the recent market downturns and is considering an international listing to attract global investors.

Bitcoin Price Action Stalls

Bitcoin’s recent price pullback raised some concerns about the speed of its potential recovery, with analysts warning that a return to its January all-time high of $109,000 may not happen as quickly as some investors hope. The broader macroeconomic landscape contributed to the consolidation. CryptoQuant analyst XBTManager pointed out that Bitcoin is currently in a pullback phase after its ATH and is likely to stay in a period of consolidation for some time.

(Source: CryptoQuant)

The analyst placed emphasis on the fact that Bitcoin long positions will only become viable once long-term holders resume accumulation, as short-term holders are currently engaging in sell-offs. Until then, traders should stay cautious and avoid highly risky trades in the coming months. In the days leading up to Bitcoin’s peak at $109,000 on Jan. 20, just before Donald Trump’s inauguration, short-term holders increased their supply while long-term holders took profits, which led to a shift in market dynamics.

After Bitcoin’s all-time high, long-term holder supply saw a large reduction, with approximately 100,000 BTC being sold in the following 30 days. However, an even bigger decline happened in December when Bitcoin first crossed the six-figure mark. On Dec. 1, long-term holders collectively held about 15.2 million BTC, just days before Bitcoin reached $100,000 on Dec. 5. By Dec. 20, that figure had dropped to 14.7 million BTC, and at present, long-term holder supply declined to 14.4 million BTC. This is an 800,000 BTC reduction since Dec. 1.

Bitcoin Long Term Holder Supply (Source: BitBo)

Bitcoin’s retracement below $100,000 on Feb. 4 was mainly triggered by fears surrounding a potential trade war after Trump’s proposed tariffs. The downward pressure intensified on Feb. 27 when Bitcoin fell to $85,000 at the Wall Street open as markets reacted to confirmation of new US tariffs. Later that same day, Bitcoin plummeted below the critical $80,000 level, which effectively erased almost all the gains it accumulated since Trump’s election victory on Nov. 5.

At press time, BTC was trading hands at $88,61 after its price managed to climb by more than 5% over the past 24 hours. For now, the sustained decline in long-term holder supply suggests a cautious approach among institutional and retail investors, which means that Bitcoin’s price movements in the near future will depend largely on the broader economic environment and liquidity conditions.

Mexican Billionaire Shifts Majority of Wealth to Bitcoin

Other Bitcoin holders are not as cautious. Mexican billionaire Ricardo Salinas, founder and chairman of Grupo Salinas, recently increased his Bitcoin exposure, now allocating 70% of his investment portfolio to Bitcoin-related assets. This is a big jump from his 10% allocation in 2020, and certainly solidifies his belief that Bitcoin is the “hardest asset in the world.” 

In an interview with Bloomberg on March 4, Salinas stated that he is “pretty much all in” on Bitcoin, with the remaining 30% of his investments allocated to gold and gold miners. He also clarified that he holds no bonds or traditional stocks outside of his company’s shares.

(Source: Bloomberg)

Salinas’ net worth stands at $4.6 billion, and he has been a strong advocate for Bitcoin over the years. He initially disclosed his Bitcoin holdings in November of 2020, revealing a 10% allocation. This increased to 60% by April of 2022. 

He credits former Grayscale CEO Barry Silbert for introducing him to Bitcoin in 2012 or 2013, which led him to make his first investment when BTC was trading at just $200. His belief in Bitcoin’s scarcity and resistance to inflation strengthened over time, and prompted him to recommend a dollar-cost averaging strategy for investors.

Beyond his personal investments, Salinas has long wanted to integrate Bitcoin into Mexico’s financial sector. Since 2021, he has been working to make Banco Azteca, one of his company’s subsidiaries, the first Mexican bank to accept Bitcoin. However, many regulatory hurdles have complicated the process. His recent comments on Bitcoin were made as he announced plans to separate Grupo Elektra from Grupo Salinas, allowing him greater control over the company’s direction. 

Japanese investment firm Metaplanet also expanded its Bitcoin holdings with a $44 million purchase. This led to a 20% surge in its stock price on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. 

Metaplanet Inc. is a Tokyo-based investment firm that is focused on Bitcoin and digital assets. It was originally involved in real estate and hospitality, but the company has shifted its strategy toward cryptocurrency investments. Listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, Metaplanet has plans to become a leading corporate Bitcoin holder in Japan and the broader Asian market.

CEO Simon Gerovich announced on March 5 that the company bought 497 Bitcoin at an average price of $88,448 per coin, bringing its total holdings to 2,888 BTC. The firm now holds approximately $251 million worth of Bitcoin, with an average purchase price of $84,240 per coin.

Bitcoin has faced a downturn in recent weeks due to concerns over a potential trade war fueled by US President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs. Despite this, Metaplanet still maintained its aggressive accumulation strategy.  In 2025 so far, the company bought 794.5 BTC, and reported gains of around $66 million in the first quarter. The company plans to acquire 21,000 BTC by 2026 as part of its plan to spearhead Japan’s Bitcoin adoption.

The recent Bitcoin purchase is Metaplanet’s second major acquisition this week, after a 156 BTC buy on March 3. Gerovich also revealed that the firm is considering an international listing, possibly in the US. The main goal of this expansion is to enhance global investor access to its shares. In late February, he met with officials at the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq to discuss potential opportunities for expanding the firm’s reach.

Metaplanet stock price over the past year (Source: Google Finance)

Metaplanet’s stock has been one of the strongest performers over the past year, surging over 1,700%, although it faced some turbulence in the last trading week due to Bitcoin’s price fluctuations. With its latest acquisitions, Metaplanet has now become the largest corporate Bitcoin holder in Asia and the 12th largest worldwide, surpassing Hong Kong-based Boyaa Interactive International.