BTC price is showing signs of a bottoming formation with technical indicators suggesting a potential breakout to new all-time highs, according to crypto analyst Dan Gambardello.
The analyst highlights patterns on Bitcoin’s weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) that have historically preceded significant price movements.
“Historically, when Bitcoin breaks out of this area, something big happens,” Gambardello explains, referring to current RSI levels on the weekly timeframe.
Technical indicators and historical BTC price patterns
Gambardello bases his analysis on several key technical indicators. He placed particular emphasis on Bitcoin’s weekly RSI momentum oscillator.
The analyst identifies a potential breakout pattern forming that resembles a similar setup from July 2021. This preceded Bitcoin’s run to all-time highs later that year.
“From a technical move, we’re in a very similar move to right here. This first top of the last bull market kind of coming below that 20-week support at the 50-week, this is what’s happening right now,” Gambardello explains, pointing to comparable chart patterns.
The current daily chart shows BTC price forming lower lows in price while the momentum oscillator trends upward.
This divergence between price action and momentum is similar to what occurred before the July 2021 breakout.
On the weekly chart, Gambardello highlights a key resistance level on the RSI that, if broken, could signal a major move upward.
An important distinction Gambardello makes between the 2021 top and current conditions relates to oscillator readings.
He notes that the previous cycle showed bearish divergence with a lower high on the weekly RSI as prices reached all-time highs—a warning sign that was present before the subsequent bear market.
The current setup lacks this warning signal. Looking at the daily timeframe, BTC price is currently at a clear resistance area, consolidating in a pattern that resembles the pre-breakout phase from the previous cycle.
The 2021 pre-rally consolidation lasted approximately 60 days before breaking out, while the current consolidation has lasted around 40 days.
Gambardello Says Market is Oversold
“We are not only from a technical area, right? We just looked at the RSI. We’re oversold, not overbought.
Not only from that very simple technical area, similar, but we’re not getting ready to enter this phase of quantitative tightening and Fed contraction,” Gambardello states.
The analyst points out that in late 2021, the market was on the brink of quantitative tightening, with the Federal Reserve preparing to contract the money supply and raise interest rates.
In contrast, current conditions suggest the opposite trajectory—the potential tapering of quantitative tightening and the prospect of monetary expansion on the horizon.
This difference in monetary policy direction creates an entirely different backdrop for BTC price’s action.
The S&P 500 chart reinforces this view, showing that the market is bouncing from historically oversold levels rather than topping out in overbought territory as it was in December 2021.
Gambardello also notes the contrast in market sentiment and news flow. The end of the last bull cycle coincided with a series of negative developments, including the FTX collapse, Celsius bankruptcy, and increased SEC enforcement actions.
The current environment features more positive developments for the cryptocurrency sector.
Short-term BTC Price Outlook
While maintaining a bullish long-term perspective, Gambardello cautions that Bitcoin’s immediate price action could include further consolidation or downside.
The analyst draws parallels to the pre-breakout phase from 2021. He suggested the current pattern may require additional time to develop before resolving.
“Bitcoin could just kind of make a move lower into the lower 70s. It’s something to prepare for, a dip like that,” Gambardello warns.
The comparison to the 2021 pre-rally consolidation provides a potential timeframe for the current pattern.
The previous consolidation lasted approximately 60 days before breaking out higher, while the current pattern has only been developing for around 40 days.
This implies that BTC price can still go sideways or down for a few more weeks before it makes a move.
Gambardello suggests comparing both the day and weekly RSI levels to confirm signals. While the weekly RSI is heading toward a likely breaking point, he cautions that the indicator can “trickle down and sideways” before breaking higher.
Source: https://www.thecoinrepublic.com/2025/04/12/btc-price-analyst-says-why-he-doesnt-think-bitcoin-top-is-in/