By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
Bitcoin is rallying alongside the U.S. dollar, a pattern that has surfaced several times since President Donald Trump won the 2024 election.
The cryptocurrency has gained over 10% since the outbreak of war in the Middle East over the weekend. Prices nearly tested the $74,000 mark at one point yesterday and are up over 2% in the past 24 hours. The CoinDesk 20 Index and major tokens including ether (ETH), XRP (XRP) and solana (SOL) rose 2% or more.
For bulls, the rally is notable not just for its magnitude but for the backdrop: It’s unfolding amid risk aversion in global equities and alongside a strengthening dollar. The Dollar Index (DXY) has gained over 1% this week and hit a high of 99.68 on Wednesday, a level last seen in November.
That combination may puzzle many market watchers. A stronger greenback typically weighs on dollar-denominated assets like bitcoin, and historically the two have tended to move in opposite directions.
Yet that inverse correlation has repeatedly been challenged since Trump returned to the White House promising pro-crypto policies. Both BTC and the DXY rose in the lead-up to and aftermath of the election, both fell in March–April 2025. Now both are rallying again.
In the meantime, the demand for BTC from the U.S. appears to be strengthening, a constructive signal for the market. The Coinbase Premium index — which measures the spread between prices on the Nasdaq-listed exchange and offshore giant Binance — rose to 0.0227% today, the highest since December, according to data source Coinglass. A premium on Coinbase is typically a sign of stronger demand from U.S. investors.
The focus now is whether the cryptocurrency can penetrate the historical make-or-break zone around $74,000. A decisive breakout would likely bolster investor confidence and draw additional buyers into the market.
Some traders are also watching the U.S. macroeconomy.
“The US Employment Situation report for February is scheduled for March 6 followed by CPI on March 11, and the next FOMC meeting on March 17-18,” Vikram Subburaj, CEO of Indian exchange Giottus.com said in an email. “All these are potential volatility catalysts for global risk assets, including crypto.”
Other macro observers remain cautious, noting that the current calm tied to the U.S. promise to escort and insure oil tankers may prove fragile.
“All it takes is one Iranian rocket for this fragile equilibrium to pitch into severe discontinuity. The threat of one Iranian rocket hitting paydirt remains real and this isn’t something that can be remedied any time soon,” economist Robin Brooks noted in a blog post. Stay alert!
Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today
What to Watch
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.
- Crypto
- Macro
- March 5, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. initial jobless claims for week ending Feb. 28 (Prev. 212K)
- March 5, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. nonfarm productivity QoQ prel for Q4 (Prev. 4.9%)
- March 5, 4:30 p.m.: U.S. Fed balance sheet update for period ending March 4
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
- March 5: Rumble (RUM), post-market, -$0.10
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.
- Governance votes & calls
- Uniswap DAO is voting across two linked proposals to expand v2 and v3 protocol fees to eight L2 networks and enable a new tier-based fee system across all v3 pools. Voting ends March 5.
- Gnosis DAO is voting to provide a grant to fund the continued support, infrastructure, and maintenance of the Revoke.cash security platform. Voting ends March 5.
- Unlocks
- March 5: Ethena (ENA) to unlock 2.24% of its circulating supply worth $18.35 million.
- Token Launches
- March 5: WhiteBit Token (WBT) lists on Kraken.
- March 5: Limitless (LMTS) to be listed on Coinbase.
- March 5: Opinion (OPN) to be listed on Binance, BitMart, BingX, MEXC and others.
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.
Market Movements
- BTC is down 0.13% from 4 p.m. ET Wednesday at $72,849.18 (24hrs: +2.42%)
- ETH is down 1.08% at $2,135.84 (24hrs: +3.81%)
- CoinDesk 20 is down 1.25% at 2,072.03 (24hrs: +2.75%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 6 bps at 2.91%
- BTC funding rate is at 0.0026% (2.8744% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is down 0.12% at 98.99
- Gold futures are up 1.06% at $5,174.30
- Silver futures are up 2.28% at $84.51
- Nikkei 225 closed up 1.90% at 55,278.06
- Hang Seng closed up 0.28% at 25,321.34
- FTSE 100 is up 0.30% at 10,598.92
- Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.13% at 5,878.37
- DJIA closed on Wednesday up 0.49% at 48,739.41
- S&P 500 closed up 0.78% at 6,869.50
- Nasdaq Composite closed up 1.29% at 22,807.48
- S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.47% at 33,942.90
- S&P 40 Latin America closed up 2.26% at 3,619.17
- U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 3 bps at 4.08%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are unchanged at 6,870.50
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are unchanged at 25,113.50
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 0.18% at 48,710.00
Bitcoin Stats
- BTC Dominance: 59.78% (0.9%)
- Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.02938 (0.38%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 999 EH/s
- Hashprice (spot): $32.09
- Total fees: 3.03 BTC / $215,909
- CME Futures Open Interest: 111,485 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 14.1 oz.
- BTC vs gold market cap: 4.88%
Technical Analysis
- The chart from Coinglass shows daily open interest in zcash (ZEC) futures.
- Open interest refers to the number of active futures contracts at any given time.
- The tally has increased to nearly 1.50 million ZEC, rising past a downtrend line.
- The breakout indicates renewed interest in ZEC futures and higher volatility ahead.
Crypto Equities
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Wednesday at $208.93 (+14.57%), +0.10% at $209.14 in pre-market
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $24.34 (+17.70%)
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $9.29 (+7.27%), –0.22% at $9.27
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $16.53 (+8.11%), +0.24% at $16.57
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $15.84 (+3.53%)
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $10.66 (+7.79%), –0.75% at $10.58
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $12.16 (+12.28%), unchanged in pre-market
- CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF (WGMI): closed at $41.20 (+8.76%)
- Circle Internet Group (CRCL): closed at $105.27 (+5.66%), unchanged in pre-market
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $36.86 (+11.29%), –0.49% at $36.68
Crypto Treasury Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $146.44 (+10.37%), –0.30% at $146.00
- Sharplink (SBET): closed at $8.13 (+11.98%), –1.60% at $8.00
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $1.08 (+37.58%), +1.85% at $1.10
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.22 (+6.09%)
- Strive Asset Management (ASST): closed at $9.62 (+15.49%), +0.73% at $9.69
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs
- Daily net flows: $461.9 million
- Cumulative net flows: $55.93 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~ 1.29 million
Spot ETH ETFs
- Daily net flows: $169.4 million
- Cumulative net flows: $11.83 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~ 5.79 million
Source: Farside Investors