BTC Price Forecast: Why This Week is Crucial For Bitcoin Price?

The cryptocurrency markets have been displaying a mixed performance on Monday, with some cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP trading lower, while others such as Solana, Shiba Inu, and Cardano are experiencing gains.

Despite the slight decline this morning, Bitcoin and Ethereum have been holding strong above the $24,000 and $1,600 marks, respectively. The cryptocurrency market has been volatile, and investors are closely monitoring the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes this week to gain insights into the market’s future direction.

Altcoin Daily’s Austin Arnold has released a YouTube video that provides a deep analysis of Bitcoin (BTC) using key metrics to determine the king coin’s price movement going on from here.

What Next For Bitcoin?

Bitcoin’s price chart has been rejected from the 200-week moving average, a significant metric in Bitcoin’s history. The 200-week moving average is a useful indicator to determine the momentum in the market, says Arnold. In the past, Bitcoin’s price has always remained above this indicator during both bear and bull markets.

Arnold made the observation that moving averages are considered lagging indicators, which means that their primary purpose is to identify when an existing trend is being superseded by a new one.  

Bitcoin has broken below the 200-week moving average back in 2022 and is still fighting to recover. The decline below the moving average is a cause for caution for Bitcoin holders.

USD Exchange-Traded Volume Across Major Exchanges and Macro Trends

While waiting for a breakout, Arnold thinks investors should consider exchange-traded volume in USD. Bitcoin’s volume has declined as the price has increased, indicating that buyers may be losing interest. 

Another important consideration is the impact of macro trends, as they also affect the crypto market. The strength of the US dollar, for example, is currently reaching an inflection point that may have a significant impact on crypto continuation.

A strong dollar means less money going into crypto, and as USD is one-half of most cryptocurrency trading pairs, Bitcoin may be weakened by a strong dollar. Recent news from the Federal Reserve suggests that they may slow their pace of raising rates. 

However, the sticky nature of inflation has made it difficult to reduce the strength of the dollar. It is essential to monitor the strength of the dollar and its impact on the crypto market, the expert says.

Bitcoin Price Analysis

If we zoom out to a weekly view of Bitcoin’s price activity, we see a pattern reminiscent of the last capitulation phase of the bear market in 2018. The last phase of the bear market in 2018 saw Bitcoin’s price drop by half. For this reason, many investors gave up and lost a lot of money. The cryptocurrency then struck a surprising bottom and rose, kicking off the bull run of 2019.

The same pattern is repeating itself today; after a steep slump that took the market down to the $15,000 level, there was a string of capitulation occurrences. It has been on an upswing for quite some time now and has broken through many key levels of resistance.

As of this writing, one bitcoin is equivalent to $24,536. Bitcoin’s price has hit a major barrier of resistance at $25,000. From about the middle of June 2022, this barrier technological and psychological in nature—has been the primary factor keeping the price down. If the coin manages to break through this zone of resistance, it is more likely to surge impulsively toward the next resistance area, which is $30,000.