BTC price back above 80,000 USD

Yesterday, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) returned above 80,000 USD.

However, one must not get caught up in easy enthusiasms, because it could also be a case of a false restart.

In fact, technically it was just a temporary rebound, and not a trend reversal.

The current scenario of Bitcoin (BTC) price: will it manage to hold 80,000 USD?

Starting from March 7, the prezzo di BTC fell below 90,000 USD and since then it has not returned above that threshold.

The main problem was due to the foreign trade policy of the USA under the Trump administration, particularly starting from the announcement on April 2 of the “reciprocal” tariffs (but which are not reciprocal).

Although that day the price of Bitcoin only fell from $86,000 to $82,000, in the following days there was a real escalation of the US trade war, especially against China.

As soon as it was understood that an escalation of the trade war was occurring between the two countries, the financial markets collapsed, as did the price of BTC.

And so, within a few days, Bitcoin has also fallen below 75,000 USD.

It should be noted, however, that as soon as it fell below this threshold, within a few hours it had already climbed back above, so much so that by the end of yesterday it was settled around 77,000 USD.

The rebound after the suspension of Trump’s tariffs

Yesterday, President Trump publicly announced that he has suspended the “reciprocal” tariffs for 90 days.

The financial markets as a whole reacted immediately with a strong rebound, so much so that the price of BTC suddenly rose above $83,000, only to settle back at $82,000.

Most likely, it is not a coincidence that this is also the figure reached on April 3, given that yesterday the tariffs were not removed but the escalation was only deflated.

That day the price of BTC quickly returned above $81,000, and before it could return to $82,000 the denial came out, causing it to drop again below $80,000.

Therefore, yesterday’s was a sort of “announced” rebound, even if only beneath the surface, also because it was objectively impossible for the escalation to continue to rise much.

We were close to the breaking point, which came yesterday, when the financial markets began to drive up the yields on 10-year American debt.

The trend reversal

As can be clearly understood from all this, it is not at all a trend reversal, because Trump’s trade war is still ongoing.

This is “only” a momentary de-escalation, which, however, could be destined to last if the parties begin to dialogue.

It must be said that the Unione Europea, which is the second largest trading partner of the USA after China, had immediately expressed its readiness to negotiate, and that in reality the escalation concerned only the USA and China.

Now even China has expressed its readiness to negotiate, and it seems difficult for the USA to afford long and unproductive negotiations.

This means that, although the current moment is not yet characterized by a trend reversal, this could also arrive in the coming weeks or months.

Note that the markets continue to fear the risk that the USA in 2025 will go into recession, precisely because of Trump’s policies, and next year there will be mid-term elections in the USA that Trump cannot afford to lose.

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The forecasts

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The key moments, in the medium term, seem to be two.

The first, which could already occur in the medium-short term, is the end of April, when in theory the results of the first USA negotiations might arrive, perhaps with the EU.

In theory, in fact, it might not be difficult for Trump to reach a trade agreement with the European Union, also because this would remove an uncomfortable but secondary issue, allowing him to focus on the primary one, namely China.

Instead, the negotiation with China could be more complicated, because it involves a very large and powerful counterpart, and above all not willing to bend.

In fact, the second key moment could be June, that is, the month in which the current phase could completely conclude.

It is extremely difficult at the current state to predict what will happen after June, also because no one yet has a precise idea of how such negotiations might end.

However, it is well known that Trump cannot afford for the negative consequences of his policy to extend until 2026, because if he were to lose the mid-term elections, he could also risk impeachment.