BTC Price 25% from ATH: Is Crypto Really in a Bear Market?

Key Takeaways:

• Bitcoin closed below the 50 MA on the weekly chart, which has always been a bear market indicator in the last 15 years.
• The BTC price is hovering below $95k, down 25% from the ATH.
• Traders are divided over whether the crypto market has turned long-term bearish, with many arguing the bottom is near.

The crypto market has had a rough year. Crypto prices are circling the gutter, just 5% of altcoins are in profit, and at ~$95,000 at the time of writing, the BTC price is down roughly 25% from its all-time high. What gives? Are we in a bear market?

It’s not just the price action, either. Last week’s close below the crucial 50-week moving average is a line that’s served as Bitcoin’s bull-bear boundary for over a decade. And it has sent technical analysts scrambling for historical crypto market charts and cycle narratives.

Every time the BTC price has closed below this weekly trendline, it’s kicked off (or deepened) a bear market.

Some traders like battle-hardened Arthur Hayes are beginning to dump their crypto. So, is this a temporary blip, or are they preparing for a prolonged bear market ahead?

BTC Price Below the 50-Week: What History Says

For market purists, the technical definition couldn’t be clearer. The last two times Bitcoin closed under the 50-week MA, the crypto market handed out brutal drawdowns.

In 2018, after the BTC price closed below its 50-week moving average, the crypto market ultimately saw a drawdown of more than 70% from its all-time high to the December bottom.

In 2022, losing the 50-week moving average coincided with a decline of roughly 67% from the previous peak to the late-year low.

As of November 2025, the 50-week MA stands near $100,862, serving as both a psychological and technical boundary for traders and longer-term investors. Once lost, bear markets tend to unfold in classic, grinding fashion.

Recent action saw the BTC price test those same nerves. The most recent weekly candle is well below this threshold, and bearish sentiment is piling on.

Bulls point out that, in prior cycles, dropping through this level often leads to high-volatility shakeouts (“fakeouts” as much as breakdowns). But the consistency of the relationship is hard to ignore, and for many, the bear is now officially in the room.

The Crypto Market: A ‘Structural Bear Market’

It’s not just the crypto market chart watchers waving the warning flag. The Kobeissi Letter, a staple in institutional macro analysis, called the current crypto correction structural and mechanical.

The crypto market has erased over $1.1 trillion in market cap over the last 41 days. Yet as Kobeissi points out, “this decline has been strange for one key reason.”

The breakdown in crypto prices has come at the same time as the crypto market has received buy-in from the highest level. President Trump declared that making the US the number-one in crypto was a top priority.

The crypto market decline “appears to be a structural and mechanical downturn,” The Kobeissi Letter concludes. It was driven by institutional outflows in mid to late October and accentuated by over-leveraged traders, causing one liquidation cascade after another.

“Therefore, when you really zoom out, it seems that crypto is in a “structural” bear market. The fundamental value of crypto has only improved, but market dynamics are shifting…. We think the bottom is near.”

Top Isn’t In? The Trader’s Counterpoint

Many active traders and analysts, like Crypto Banter’s Ran Neuner and on-chain analyst Checkmate, argue that the biggest signals of euphoria in the crypto market (rampant altseason, parabolic spot buying, manic retail FOMO) simply haven’t appeared.

They argue that the tops of bull markets don’t look like this, and are doubling down their conviction: Neuner posted:

“We have had a 25% correction as is normal for any Bitcoin cycle… Now you have a choice to make. Are you buying in the same conditions that have made millionaires so many times or are you bear posting for clout. I know what I’m doing. All-In.”

So, Bear or Not?

What’s left for investors navigating this new landscape in the crypto market? If you trust the previous rules, death below the 50-week MA, liquidity dries up, and reflexive sellers chase the exits, then yes, we are charting bearish waters.

But zoom out, and the story is muddier. Institutions are duking it out over new product innovation, macro volatility may be masking deeper demand, and as the old four-year cadence loses power, the market might just be pausing, not dying; shaking out leverage and restructuring.

As Washington remains bullish on the crypto market and macro analysts point to short-term corrections over fundamental changes, it may be too early to call the next crypto winter yet.