Expert Andy Edstrom estimates 60% bear market odds for Bitcoin despite whale accumulation, but maintains $200K target remains possible.
Bitcoin faces growing uncertainty as investment advisor Andy Edstrom suggests a 60% probability that the current bull cycle has ended.
The digital asset trades at $86,109 following a 10.65% weekly decline.
Edstrom maintains exposure despite bearish odds, citing favorable risk-reward mathematics. Whale accumulation data present a contrasting bullish signal that complicates the market outlook.
Edstrom Maps Bear Probability Against Bull Target
Edstrom outlined his probability framework in a detailed post on the social media platform X.
He defines continued bull market conditions as BTC reaching $130,000 by next year. The threshold accounts for inflation adjustments relative to the 2021 peak.
His bear market scenario targets a bottom near $60,000, welcoming back buyers from previous support levels.
The expected value calculation produces a $116,000 target from current levels. This represents a 38% upside return based on weighted probabilities.
Bitcoin Bear Market Post Here. WARNING.
I’ve been having some interesting interactions with people who are in denial of the likelihood that the #Bitcoin bull market is over and that it is now in a bear market. It has helped me sharpen my definitions and, more importantly,…
— Andy Edstrom (@edstromandrew) November 22, 2025
Edstrom applies 60% weight to the $60,000 bear scenario and 40% to a $200,000 bull outcome. His long-term projection maintains an $8 trillion market cap target for 2029, translating to $400,000 per Bitcoin.
The advisor warns that leveraged positions face elevated risk regardless of directional bias.
He anticipates potential relief rallies toward $100,000 where major moving averages converge. This level could provide exit opportunities for overextended holders.
Historical patterns suggest one final chance to reduce positions before deeper corrections.
Whale Wallets Hit Record Accumulation Pace
Glassnode data reveals Bitcoin whale wallets holding 1,000 BTC or more reached 1,436 entities by mid-November.
The accumulation rate exceeds previous bull market peaks in 2013 and 2016. Macro strategist Gert van Lagen interprets this as unprecedented demand from large holders.
He argues bear markets require distribution phases that remain absent from current data.
Van Lagen predicts a blow-off top event rather than a bearish reversal. The whale wallet surge contradicts typical pre-bear market distribution patterns.
Large holders continue accumulating at the fastest pace in Bitcoin’s history. This behavior typically precedes sharp upward price movements rather than sustained declines.
The conflicting signals create uncertainty for market participants. CoinGecko data shows 24-hour trading volume reached $42.9 billion with a 2.95% daily gain.
Bitcoin recovered modest ground after the weekly selloff. The divergence between price action and on-chain metrics leaves the directional outlook unclear.
Related Reading: Michael Saylor Signals More BTC Buys Using 2022 Bear Market Plan
Bear Scenario Requires Fundamental Catalysts
Edstrom expects additional negative events if bear market conditions persist.
Previous cycles featured exchange hacks, fraud cases, and leverage unwinds. Potential catalysts include exchange failures, geopolitical conflicts with China, or quantum computing advances.
Each historical bear market included multiple fundamental shocks beyond technical breakdown.
Conversely, sustained bull markets require positive policy developments. Market structure legislation or government Bitcoin purchases could provide upward fuel.
The probability framework acknowledges significant uncertainty in both directions. Edstrom maintains Bitcoin exposure while cautioning against over-concentration in single assets.
The 40% bull case probability remains substantial despite bearish lean.
Nothing in financial markets carries absolute certainty. Probabilistic thinking prevents dangerous leverage decisions on volatile assets.
Edstrom encourages position sizing appropriate to individual financial circumstances and risk tolerance.