BTC Golden Cross Returns, Only 4 in History — What’s Next?

 Key Insights:

• Bitcoin’s Golden Cross appears for the fourth time, historically followed by triple-digit price rallies.
• On-chain holder data signals equilibrium, with no shift between short- and long-term BTC holders.
• Binance’s Buying Power Ratio plunges, warning of declining liquidity and possible short-term market weakness.

Bitcoin price has triggered its fourth-ever Golden Cross on the weekly chart, a technical signal where the 50-week moving average crosses above the 200-week moving average. This event has occurred only three times in BTC history — in 2016, 2019, and 2020 — each followed by major rallies. 

According to data shared by Merlijn The Trader, these previous signals preceded gains of +264%, +2,200%, and +1,190%, respectively.

Bitcoin is now trading around $115,118. While previous Golden Crosses led to strong bull markets, no percentage projection has yet been assigned to the current signal. The chart shows a large question mark for the 2025 cycle, leaving room for speculation on how the market may respond.

Holder Structure Signals Market Equilibrium

On-chain data from analyst Axel Adler Jr. shows that Bitcoin’s holder structure is currently in balance. The percentage of short-term holders (STH) — defined as wallets holding BTC for under six months — is at 47%. 

Meanwhile, the 30-day change in STH share (STH 30d Δ) sits at zero. This means there has been no meaningful shift between short-term and long-term holders in the past month.

Historically, spikes above +10% in the STH 30d Δ have aligned with local tops, while drops below -10% have occurred during periods of capitulation and recovery. A zero reading at all-time highs indicates neutral market pressure. According to the analyst, “Zero Δ at ATH represents an equilibrium regime,” suggesting a base case of sideways consolidation.

Liquidity Decline Observed on Binance

A custom metric known as the “Buying Power Ratio” (Stablecoin Netflow / BTC Outflow) from Binance indicates a sharp decline in exchange liquidity. On August 14, the ratio surged to 2.01, reflecting strong buying power. Within 48 hours, it dropped to -0.81, signaling a liquidity reversal as more capital exited than entered.

This drop in the ratio preceded a decline in BTC price from over $120,400 to below $118,000. Analysts view this metric as a leading indicator of market corrections. One analyst noted, “The ratio’s collapse was a direct and actionable signal.”

Outlook Remains Cautious

While the Golden Cross marks a bullish technical pattern, the lack of movement among holders and declining liquidity suggest that the next major move may not be immediate. Market participants are closely monitoring both technical and on-chain signals to determine whether a new rally will follow or if more consolidation is ahead.