BTC Approaches the Level That Changes the Game for Short-Term Holders

In Brief

• STH NUPL edges toward neutral zone, signaling shrinking losses for short‑term holders
• BTC trades near $91.7K, still showing a positive weekly trend despite mild pullback
• Break above $99K realized price may flip holders to profit and support bullish momentum

Bitcoin is approaching a critical point as the Short-Term Holder Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (STH NUPL) moves closer to the neutral 0.0 mark. This shift indicates a reduction in unrealized losses among recent buyers while Bitcoin price trends higher toward the break-even threshold. The STH NUPL rising from negative territory signals improving sentiment but also raises caution as volatility remains high.

The realized price for short-term holders is currently estimated near $99,000, which must be crossed to turn STH NUPL positive. Until that happens, most short-term holders remain underwater, making them more likely to sell into strength or react defensively. The market has historically responded with stronger gains only after this threshold is reclaimed and held.

Previous cycles show that failure to breach this level often results in temporary price pullbacks, adding importance to the current zone. As the metric hovers near zero, any rapid price drop could trigger sharper exits from participants close to break-even. This has kept price action volatile and investor confidence cautious in the short term.

Bitcoin Holds Gains Despite Mild Dip

Bitcoin is trading at $91,733.77, having shown a mild retreat of 1.83% over the last 24 hours and 0.79% in the past hour. Despite this short-term decline, the asset remains up 3.55% over the past week, indicating broader market strength. Price action suggests a consolidation phase following the recovery from the October crash.

According to Glassnode, the STH profit/loss ratio hit 0.013 on November 24 after Bitcoin touched a local low around $80,000. At that time, over 2.45 million BTC held by short-term addresses were in loss, the highest since late 2022. The data indicates that major local bottoms often form when short-term loss levels reach such extremes.

This behaviour aligns with past market bottoms, supporting the view that November’s dip could represent a base for further recovery. However, the market remains cautious as most short-term holders have yet to flip into profit. A sustained move above $99,000 would likely shift sentiment and confirm the next bullish phase for Bitcoin.