BTC Analysis: Neutral Tilt Near Pivot

BTC Analysis — Daily (D1)

Trend/EMAs: Price at 114,170.10 USDT trades above the 20/50/200 EMAs (112,411.05 / 113,395.48 / 109,356.64). This shows a slight bullish structure, as buyers keep price above key trend gauges.

RSI (14): 53.27, marginally above 50. This signals a neutral-to-bullish bias, but not a dominant uptrend.

MACD: Line -629.75 vs signal -1,238.70 with a +608.95 histogram. Line above signal and histogram positive indicate improving momentum from below zero, often an early recovery phase.

Bollinger Bands: Mid 111,570.75; upper 118,633.95; lower 104,507.55. Price sits between mid and upper band, implying moderate buying interest without overextension.

ATR (14): 3,348.20. Daily volatility is elevated; risk control may require wider stops and measured position sizing.

Pivots: PP 114,066.87; R1 114,650.43; S1 113,586.53. Hovering just above PP suggests a balanced session with nearby triggers in either direction.

Overall, D1 stays neutral with a mild bullish lean as long as price holds above EMA20.

BTC Analysis — Intraday (H1)

Trend/EMAs: Price is below EMA20 (114,332.83) but above EMA50/200 (113,975.41 / 111,730.23). This points to minor intraday softness within a broader uptrend.

RSI (14): 47.62, slightly under 50. Intraday bias leans bearish, hinting at hesitant buyers.

MACD: Line -147.49 below signal -38.51 with a -108.97 histogram. Negative momentum shows pressure from sellers in the short term.

Bollinger Bands: Mid 114,533.16; upper 115,733.60; lower 113,332.73. Price below the mid band signals range drift toward support.

ATR (14): 503.66. Typical hourly swings near 500 USDT imply tactical risk management for intraday plans.

Pivots: PP 114,192.47; R1 114,293.42; S1 114,069.14. Trading just under PP keeps the edge with sellers unless reclaimed.

BTC Analysis — Micro (M15)

Trend/EMAs: Price 114,188.97 above EMA20 (113,987.91) and EMA200 (114,024.03) but just under EMA50 (114,214.20). Micro trend is constructive, yet capped by the 50-EMA.

RSI (14): 55.56, modestly bullish. Near-term buyers have a slight edge.

MACD: Line -43.06 above signal -106.61 with a +63.55 histogram. A fresh cross supports short bursts higher.

Bollinger Bands: Mid 113,903.84; upper 114,179.55; lower 113,628.12. Price nudging above the upper band hints at a brief overextension that often mean-reverts.

ATR (14): 194.64. Micro volatility is contained, favoring tight levels for execution.

Pivots: PP 114,172.85; R1 114,245.96; S1 114,115.86. Holding above PP keeps the near-term tone positive.

Daily is neutral, H1 tilts soft, and M15 is mildly constructive—overall a cautious, range-biased structure into today’s session.

Trading scenarios

Bullish BTC Analysis

Trigger: Hold above 114,066.87 (D1 PP) and break 114,293.42 (H1 R1), then 114,650.43 (D1 R1).

Target: 115,733.60 (H1 upper band), then 118,633.95 (D1 upper band).

Invalidation: Close back below 113,586.53 (D1 S1).

Risk: Consider 0.5–1.0× ATR for stops (D1 ATR ≈ 1,674–3,348 USDT).

Bearish BTC Analysis

Trigger: Fail to reclaim 114,192.47 (H1 PP) and lose 114,066.87 (D1 PP) on momentum.

Target: 113,586.53 (D1 S1), then 112,411.05 (D1 EMA20) or 111,570.75 (D1 Boll mid).

Invalidation: Strong close above 114,650.43 (D1 R1).

Risk: 0.5–1.0× ATR on H1 for tighter control (≈ 252–504 USDT).

Neutral (main)

Trigger: As long as price oscillates between 113,586.53 and 114,650.43, fading moves back toward 114,066.87 (D1 PP) could remain valid.

Target: Reversions to the daily pivot; stretch tests near intraday R1/S1.

Invalidation: A decisive breakout beyond R1/S1 with confirming momentum shifts (RSI/MACD).

Risk: 0.25–0.5× ATR on M15 (≈ 49–97 USDT) to reflect range conditions.

Market context

Total crypto market cap: 3.95T USD, with a 24h change of -1.14%.

BTC dominance: 57.63% — leadership remains firm.

Fear & Greed Index: 50 (Neutral) — positioning is balanced.

High BTC dominance with neutral sentiment typically keeps altcoin beta contained while Bitcoin guides direction.