Brandt Insists Bitcoin Breakout Not Yet in, Sets Conditions for Real Breakout

Veteran trader Peter Brandt insists Bitcoin has still not recorded a breakout, urging caution despite the firstborn crypto’s recent gains. 

In an analysis today, Brandt argued that Bitcoin’s recent movements do not yet constitute a “real” breakout. He focused on important structures and price points that Bitcoin must breach to qualify as a legitimate breakout. 

The Bitcoin Inverted Broadening Triangle

Brandt’s chart shows an inverted broadening triangle pattern on the weekly BTC chart. The legendary analyst had previously identified this pattern, suggesting that Bitcoin would remain in a bearish setup as long as it trades within the structure.

Bitcoin’s recent push above the $71,000 level marks a new four-month high, triggering optimism within the trading community. However, Brandt notes that while this advance has excited Bitcoin bulls, it falls short of a confirmed breakout. 

According to him, a mere “nicking” of the boundary lines—where the price touches or slightly surpasses the upper trendline of the triangle—does not translate to a true breakout. 

Brandt insists that Bitcoin must reach specific criteria for a definitive breakout. For one, it should achieve a daily close above $76,000, ideally confirmed at midnight UTC on a Sunday, which would provide a strong weekly close to corroborate the upward momentum. 

For context, the $76,000 mark both exceeds the triangle’s upper boundary and places Bitcoin above its March 2024 ATH, a major resistance point. This ensures that Bitcoin has moved beyond just “nicking” trendlines and has convincingly broken through prior highs.

Brandt also called attention to the challenges of trading diagonal patterns with slanted boundaries. Such formations are more prone to “false” breakouts. In this case, price movements seem to indicate a breakout but quickly revert. At press time, BTC trades for $71,561, up 3.6% in the last 24 hours.

Bitcoin Sees Resistance at Multi-Year Highs Against Gold

Meanwhile, in a separate chart, Brandt compared Bitcoin and Gold in a “heavyweight division” of the fight against inflation. In this chart, Bitcoin’s trajectory against gold shows a broader struggle over the past 42 months. 

Despite periods of growth, Bitcoin has failed to surpass the 34.08-ounce resistance set in March 2024 and the double highs of 2021. These price levels form a horizontal resistance zone, acting as a ceiling that Bitcoin must breach.

The BTC/GLD ratio currently sits at 25.88, still below both the March 2024 peak and the 2021 highs. Notably, Bitcoin’s inability to move above these levels for over three and a half years shows a lack of substantial progress. 

However, in previous reports, Brandt has argued that Bitcoin still has potential to outpace Gold. Earlier this month, he predicted Bitcoin to soar to 123 ounces of Gold. In April, the market veteran insisted that BTC will rule over Gold and Silver for a long time.