BlackRock Likely To Surpass Satoshi Nakmoto in Bitcoin Holdings: Here’s The Timeline

Key Insights:

• BlackRock holds over 636,000 BTC, second only to Satoshi Nakamoto’s estimated 1.1 million.
• BlackRock may surpass Satoshi in BTC holdings by summer 2026 with current growth.
• Bitcoin’s positive funding rate and technical indicators suggest continued price growth.

BlackRock is now the second-largest holder of Bitcoin, following only Satoshi Nakamoto. According to Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas, the firm currently holds over 636,000 BTC, bringing it 57% of the way toward surpassing the pseudonymous creator of Bitcoin.

If the current pace continues and Bitcoin prices rise further, BlackRock could become the largest holder of Bitcoin by the summer of 2026 or possibly earlier if a sharp market increase accelerates investor inflows.

BlackRock’s BTC Holdings Growth and Timeline

Through the spot Bitcoin ETF, IBIT, BlackRock has experienced fast growth of its Bitcoin portfolio, which has gained the attention of many major institutions.

At present, the company possesses 636,108 BTC, almost reaching the estimated 1,123,500 BTC belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto. Based on this, BlackRock holds a bigger Bitcoin portfolio than Binance, MicroStrategy, and Grayscale.

Eric Balchunas commented on the potential for BlackRock to lead BTC ownership: “BlackRock second only to Satoshi in total BTC held, now 57% of the way there… possibly we see a feeding frenzy from advisors if BTC hits $150K,” he stated on X. This statement suggests that the timeline for the firm surpassing Satoshi could shorten if market demand spikes.

While the investment management firm has seen success with ETFs, institutions are increasingly welcoming Bitcoin. JPMorgan has become one of the big banks now providing BTC exposure to its clients.

Even though the company’s CEO, Jamie Dimon, remains doubtful about cryptocurrencies, the firm has made them accessible to clients. With financial institutions adopting crypto, companies like BlackRock could increase their buying of Bitcoin.

Market Indicators Support Continued BTC Rally

Various metrics suggest that Bitcoin could be heading higher, matching Balchunas’ prediction. The Bitcoin Funding Rate has now turned positive in May. CoinGlass’s data suggest that the demand for long positions has increased. After falling below zero in April, the rate has recovered, highlighting more buying as BTC reached $100,000.

Benjamin Cowen, another crypto expert, commented on Bitcoin’s recent performance. According to him, the golden cross, when the 50-day moving average crosses the 200-day moving average on Bitcoin, will likely happen within a few days. Up to now, the move has shown forward momentum, but Cowen noted that comparing it to history is necessary to draw correct conclusions.

Additionally, on-chain analysis from Swissblock suggests that current market conditions do not indicate a bearish double-top pattern, which some traders feared. “The BFI tells a different story: no signs of bearish divergence… even during the Feb–Mar pullback, it held neutral,” the firm shared. This neutral to strong sentiment on-chain aligns with the funding rate data and adds confidence to projections for continued BTC price growth.

If Bitcoin maintains its current trend and approaches $150,000, as Balchunas speculated, it could trigger a rapid increase in ETF inflows. Financial advisors may be more willing to recommend Bitcoin exposure, which would result in BlackRock acquiring even more BTC in a short time.

Institutional Entry and ETF Holdings Push the Ceiling

The growing adoption of Bitcoin by institutions and ETFs is playing a critical role in shaping the future of Bitcoin holdings. Fidelity and Grayscale each have a substantial number of BTC totaling 199,831 and 231,646, respectively. At the moment, the combined BTC held by spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. is about 1,188,186.

Even without holding the actual assets, JPMorgan’s move allows clients to use the platform for Bitcoin transactions. While Dimon continues pointing out the dangers of financial technology, he admits that financial firms are changing their approach because of customer demands.

Moreover, the United States government and other entities like Binance, Upbit, and Bitfinex hold substantial Bitcoin reserves, but none are currently on track to outpace BlackRock if its current ETF growth continues. With BlackRock absorbing a large portion of ETF market inflows and Bitcoin supply being capped at 21 million, a scenario where it overtakes Satoshi Nakamoto is plausible.