‘Black Swan’ Author Wrong About Bitcoin, Says Analyst

“Black Swan” author Nassim Nicholas Taleb has recently made waves in the Bitcoin community with his claim that the cryptocurrency is in the hands of big players and is, therefore, a flawed system. In a statement, Taleb went on to assert the superiority of central banking systems like the Federal Reserve, citing transparency and the influence potential of the USD system as key benefits.

However, analyst Will Clemente has countered Taleb’s claim, arguing that the current on-chain data paints a very different picture. According to the analyst, “The reality is that more Bitcoin is currently held by on-chain entities with less than 10 Bitcoin than ever before and climbing rapidly.” This would suggest that Bitcoin is increasingly becoming decentralized, with a broader distribution of wealth among smaller entities.

Here Taleb claims that Bitcoin is concentrated in big players’ hands, but let’s look at the actual data:

The reality is that more Bitcoin is currently held by on-chain entities with less than 10 Bitcoin than ever before and climbing rapidly. https://t.co/g2Kx8Gc4KE pic.twitter.com/zWZsFCbH3X

— Will Clemente (@WClementeIII) June 22, 2023

While it is true that a significant number of Bitcoins is held by “whales” (entities with large amounts of Bitcoin), the number of these whales is, in fact, decreasing. This indicates a trend of dispersion, not concentration, which stands contrary to Taleb’s assertions.

Interestingly, it is worth noting that the U.S. government owns a significant amount of Bitcoin. Currently, U.S. authorities hold around 205,515 Bitcoins, and this number is on the rise due to seizures from illegal activities. The U.S. government’s involvement adds another layer to the concentration debate and indicates that governmental entities are not immune to the allure of Bitcoin.

In the final analysis, Taleb’s critique seems to oversimplify the complex dynamics at play in the Bitcoin ecosystem. The increasing dispersion of Bitcoin among smaller entities and the diminishing number of whales show a trend toward greater distribution, not concentration. It is clear that Bitcoin’s landscape is constantly evolving and requires a nuanced and data-driven approach to fully understand.