Bitwise Sticks to $200K Bitcoin Call, Doubts ETH & SOL

Key Points:

• Bitwise holds firm on $200K Bitcoin prediction, citing sustained institutional demand and ETF inflows.
• Ethereum and Solana forecasts lowered due to macro risks and year-to-date underperformance.
• Stablecoins and tokenized assets near Bitwise targets as crypto adoption continues across sectors.

Bitwise Asset Management has reaffirmed its $200,000 Bitcoin price prediction for 2025, citing strong institutional demand. The update came in a mid-year note to clients by Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan and Head of Research Ryan Rasmussen. The firm believes steady interest from treasury allocators and ETF inflows continues to support its bullish outlook.

Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $112,000 in May, driven by ETF activity and developments such as the U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve. Hougan stated, 

“We’re holding firm to our BTC $200k prediction, as there is simply too much institutional demand for BTC to keep prices flat for long.”

Mixed Sentiment Toward Ethereum and Solana

While Bitwise remains confident in Bitcoin, the firm has tempered its outlook for Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL). Both assets are down year-to-date. The firm attributed the underperformance to macroeconomic risks that have stalled broader market momentum.

Hougan acknowledged this in the note, writing, 

“We’re less confident on ETH and SOL but hope that rising interest in stablecoins, ETF approvals, and the emergence of ETH and SOL treasury companies can drive prices substantially higher.” 

Despite near-term uncertainty, Bitwise remains watchful for positive momentum in the second half of the year.

2025 Predictions: Progress and Revisions

Bitwise has seen mixed results on other 2025 forecasts issued last December. The firm said Bitcoin ETFs are still on track to exceed the $35 billion net inflow target from 2024. Year-to-date inflows stand at $13.8 billion, and access expansion by major wealth platforms may unlock additional capital.

Stablecoin assets have grown 30% this year to reach $260 billion, while tokenized real-world assets have nearly doubled to $25 billion. Bitwise’s targets of $400 billion and $50 billion for these categories by year-end remain within reach if momentum holds.

Some Predictions Unlikely to Be Met

Not all projections are expected to materialize. Bitwise noted the slowdown in memecoin activity, referencing the collapse of tokens such as TRUMP, MELANIA, and LIBRA. This shift challenges its earlier belief that AI-generated tokens would lead a new memecoin surge.

Other forecasts now appear ambitious, including the view that Coinbase could overtake Charles Schwab in market value and that its stock would surpass $700. Bitwise also predicted the number of countries holding Bitcoin would double from 9 to 18. While that remains uncertain, the United Arab Emirates and Pakistan have recently disclosed Bitcoin reserves.

Hougan and Rasmussen concluded, “It should be an exciting H2,” as regulatory developments and institutional participation continue to shape the digital asset landscape.

Looking ahead, Bitwise forecasts that institutional and government holdings could reach 4.269 million BTC, worth an estimated $426.9 billion, by the end of 2026.

Meanwhile, at press time, Bitcoin price traded at $106,559, indicating a 1.1% decline in the past 24 hours and a 1.3% gain over the past 7 days.