Bitcoin bull cycle is likely to extend into 2026 according to BitMEX co‑founder Arthur Hayes, driven by anticipated US Federal Reserve rate cuts and increased liquidity. Investors should watch Fed policy shifts and fiscal stimulus as primary catalysts for sustained BTC upside.
Arthur Hayes expects the Bitcoin bull cycle to continue into 2026, citing anticipated US Federal Reserve rate cuts.
He says higher liquidity from monetary and fiscal policy will support Bitcoin’s upward trend despite short-term divergence versus stocks and gold.
Hayes dismisses strict four‑year cycle theory and projects further gains, including a potential target of $200,000 within the ongoing cycle.
Bitcoin bull cycle likely to extend into 2026 on Fed rate cuts and liquidity; read analysis and positioning guidance from Arthur Hayes. Learn what to watch next.
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes believes the Bitcoin bull cycle may run until 2026, fueled by expected Fed rate cuts and economic stimulus.
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BitMEX co‑founder Arthur Hayes projects the current Bitcoin bull cycle could stretch into mid‑2026. In a recent interview Hayes said the market remains in an uptrend and that anticipated monetary easing—primarily US Federal Reserve rate cuts—will likely add liquidity that benefits Bitcoin.
What is the outlook for the Bitcoin bull cycle?
Bitcoin bull cycle outlook: Hayes argues the uptrend has room to run into 2026 as expected Fed rate cuts and new fiscal liquidity increase demand for scarce assets like BTC. Market breadth and macro factors will determine timing and magnitude.
How could Fed rate cuts extend the Bitcoin bull cycle?
Hayes links extended upside to a sustained easing cycle from the Federal Reserve. Analysts anticipate a series of reductions that could begin with a 25 basis‑point cut and continue through the following year.
Lower rates typically expand liquidity and reduce the real return on fiat cash, making alternative stores of value more attractive. Hayes expects a portion of that liquidity to flow into Bitcoin because of its capped supply.
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Hayes considers calendar‑based cycle theory too rigid. He emphasizes monetary policy and fiscal action as primary drivers, not fixed timeframes. That approach allows for an extended cycle if liquidity conditions persist beyond historical ranges.
Hayes notes Bitcoin has lagged recent gains in the S&P 500 and gold, which have hit fresh highs. He calls this a short‑term deviation rather than a structural problem for BTC’s long‑term thesis.
According to Hayes, sideways price action in the near term does not negate further upside once monetary easing becomes clear. He names political pressure on policymakers and forthcoming FOMC decisions as key variables to monitor.
Positioning should be macro‑aware. Hayes suggests calibrating exposure to Bitcoin based on observable policy moves—especially rate cuts and fiscal stimulus announcements. Risk management remains essential given volatility.
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