Bitcoin’s November History Signals Path to $100K

Bitcoin has gained over 25% in November alone, and experts now project even more growth that will be driven by spot ETF inflows, which have attracted billions in investments. BTC’s market cap surged along with its price, which allowed it to become the world’s 7th largest asset by market cap. Despite high leverage ratios and large miner outflows that could suggest potential profit-taking, analysts are still bullish on BTC due to its robust market fundamentals, pro-crypto U.S. policies, and its strong network performance. Some analysts believe BTC’s six-figure milestone could be reached by month-end.

Analysts Predict Bitcoin’s Climb to $100K

Bitcoin’s (BTC) very anticipated journey to the $100,000 mark could soon become reality. Market analysts point to historical trends and rising investor demand after the recent U.S. presidential election as some of the reasons for this. 

Bitcoin’s price action over the past week (Source: CoinMarketCap)

BTC broke a big barrier on Nov. 13, after it jumped past its prior record of $90,000, and it is still steadily edging closer to six figures just days after Donald Trump’s election victory. This impressive move means that Bitcoin’s price more than doubled year-to-date, which left traditional financial assets in the dust, according to Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget Research.

Historically, November has been Bitcoin’s strongest month, and often delivers impressive returns. Lee pointed out that if current trends continue, Bitcoin could potentially gain an additional 14.7% in November, which will push it past the $100,000 mark. He also shared that post-halving cycles tend to be favorable for Bitcoin. Recent data from CoinGlass reveals that Bitcoin already surged more than 25% this month, compared to an average November return of 45% over previous years. This means that there is still a lot of room for the crypto king to grow.

Bitcoin monthly returns (Source: Coinglass)

Other experts are just as bullish, and predict major price gains through 2025. Bitfinex analysts believe that Trump’s presidency may encourage increased cryptocurrency adoption in the U.S., which could certainly also help Bitcoin break through the $100,000 barrier in the next few months. While they acknowledge the difficulty in making accurate precise predictions, they still argued that Bitcoin’s downside seems very limited, especially with the United States sidestepping a feared recession. They expect Bitcoin to range and accumulate in the short term, but with strong potential for an upward breakout as market conditions align.

However, the bullish momentum may require a temporary pause to address the market’s high leverage ratios. Kris Marszalek, the CEO of Crypto.com, warned that current levels of leveraged positions are unsustainable, which indicates that there is a need for deleveraging before Bitcoin can confidently rally to $100,000.

Marszalek advised traders to operate with caution, and also reminded investors to carefully manage their risk in these conditions. According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s estimated leverage ratio across exchanges reached 0.215, which is a level not seen since October of 2023. This factor could influence market behavior in the coming weeks, but optimism around Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory is still high.

Bitcoin Becomes World’s Seventh-Largest Asset

Bitcoin’s impressive momentum was reflected in the fact that it recently surpassed oil giant Saudi Aramco to become the world’s seventh-largest asset by market cap. Its dominance over the crypto market also reached a new high of 61.38%. 

While a major driver of Bitcoin’s recent gains is the U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s pro-crypto stance, Bitcoin’s success can also be attributed to massive inflows into U.S.-based spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs). These funds recorded $4.7 billion in net inflows over six trading days, including over $510.1 million on Wednesday alone.

Bitcoin ETF flow (Source: Farside Investors)

Since these ETFs launched in January, they accumulated an impressive $28.2 billion in assets.. While early investors questioned whether ETF purchases represented basis trades or outright bullish positions, market behavior suggests a shift away from the neutral basis trade toward net long positions as the year progresses.

Analyst Checkmate shared that Bitcoin ETFs are currently the primary demand driver, and is also absorbing most of the selling by long-term holders. The steady open interest on CME futures also supports the view that this rally is predominantly spot-driven rather than speculative. 

BlackRock’s iShare Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) proved this trend after setting trading volume records with close to  $5 billion in trades on a single day. Bloomberg senior analyst Eric Balchunas shared this milestone,  and pointed out that only three ETFs and eight stocks had higher trading volumes on that day. IBIT’s peers have also seen increased activity, with Fidelity’s FBTC reaching its highest daily volume since March at $1 billion. 

Bitcoin ETFs are investment funds that track the price of Bitcoin, while also allowing investors to gain exposure to the crypto without actually having to buy or manage it directly. These ETFs hold either actual Bitcoin or Bitcoin futures contracts, depending on their structure, and trade on traditional stock exchanges. By investing in a Bitcoin ETF, people can benefit from Bitcoin’s price movements while avoiding some of the complexities surrounding digital wallets, private keys, and direct transactions on crypto exchanges.

Bitcoin Miner Outflows Surge

Bitcoin miners are moving large amounts of their holdings out of wallets as the BTC price continues its bullish ascent. On Nov. 12, close to 25,367 Bitcoin, which is valued at around $2.2 billion, flowed out of mining pool wallets, according to data from CryptoQuant. The Bitcoin miner outflows statistic tracks all of the transactions leaving mining pool wallets, including those by individual miners. These outflows also often reflect broader market trends.

Bitcoin miner outflow chart (Source: CryptoQuant)

Onchain analyst Avocado_onchain explained that miners tend to realize profits during market uptrends to prepare for the next Bitcoin halving, which will reduce mining rewards by half. By positioning themselves for an eventual downtrend when Bitcoin hits new highs, miners ensure their sustainability through future cycles. 

Despite these outflows, the analyst revealed there is still a lot of room for growth in the current cycle. This is supported by Bitcoin’s robust hashrate and increasing mining difficulty, which usually indicates heightened participation and a strong network.

CryptoQuant shared that miner outflows do not necessarily mean selling. These transfers could be intended for exchanges, which could signal potential sales, but could also simply be internal wallet movements for other purposes. The recent activity, however, aligns with miners taking advantage of favorable market conditions.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s rally shows no signs of slowing, and Ryan Lee’s prediction that the crypto could achieve the $100,000 milestone before the month’s end seems very feasible.