Bitcoin’s next big move hinges on US election result: QCP

According to a recent report from QCP Capital, the upcoming U.S. presidential election could heavily influence Bitcoin’s price trajectory. 

While the election is the next key catalyst for Bitcoin (BTC) and broader crypto markets, uncertainty lingers over the post-election outlook, according to recent QCP Telegram posts. 

Options contracts expiring around the election are trading at a 10% premium compared to other expiries, signaling heightened market sensitivity to political developments.

QCP’s analysis suggests that any shifts in the polls or changes in the narratives of either candidate’s campaign could amplify spot prices.

Currently, Bitcoin is holding strong at around $67,000, briefly touching $68,000 following an over 2% rise. Trump’s potential victory has been positively correlated with stronger crypto performance, compared to Kamala Harris, who has expressed less supportive views on the sector.

Bitcoin ETFs

Meanwhile, Bitcoin ETFs have attracted inflows, with $456.90 million added on Oct. 16 alone. This marks the fourth consecutive day of net gains, potentially signaling continued bullish momentum, according to QCP.

If the inflows persist, some analysts are eyeing Bitcoin’s all-time high of $73,790 as a potential target.

Per QCP, long-term confidence also seems to be building, demonstrated by the recent purchase of 600 March 2028 options at a $120,000 strike price. However, the election remains a wildcard, leaving Bitcoin’s future direction uncertain.

The U.S. election and crypto

During this election season, both political parties have been trying to attract the support of the crypto community and its financial contributions. 

In his recent campaign appearances, Trump has openly expressed a positive view on cryptocurrencies. This is a change from his previous criticism when he famously called cryptocurrencies a “scam” in a 2021 interview. 

This election cycle, Trump said he would embrace crypto in his next presidential term. “Crypto is moving out of the U.S. because of hostility toward it. I don’t want that. If we are going to embrace it, we will have to let them be here,” he said in a rally.

On the other side of the aisle, Democrats, led by Harris’s campaign team, launched the Crypto4Harris initiative in early August to engage with the crypto community and counter Republican efforts to attract crypto voters.