Bitcoin’s late bull stage: $1T cap, low profit-taking, and what’s ahead

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin hit a $1T realized cap, yet its 90-day return stayed flat. With Spent Volume cooling and phase #4 metrics flashing late-bull, Bitcoin’s next move remains unsettled.

The Realized Cap of Bitcoin [BTC] hit $1 trillion, an unprecedented milestone.

In a recent report, AMBCrypto observed that a move to $120k could trigger $2 billion in short liquidations. This meant a BTC breakout could accelerate faster than expected.

Range-bound between $112k and $120k

Source: Adler Insights

Over the past three months, volatility has been the name of the game. On top of that, Bitcoin has not been in a steady uptrend.

From May to the first week of July, the prices ranged from $102k to $110k. A breakout past this resistance in July reached $123k by mid-July.

Since then, the leading crypto has formed another range, from $112k to $120k.

The 90-day price return was at 5%, signifying a lack of long-term momentum. It was neutral momentum and highlighted the consolidation phase of the market, and not a new trend.

Moreover, the Short-Term Holder Realized Price was at $116k, and more sideways movement is likely. A correction toward $100k is possible, though recovery signs remain.

Neutral-bullish Bitcoin signals in late-stage bull market

Source: Adler Insights

The 7-day moving average of the BTC Spent Volume stood at 545k Bitcoin per day.

According to crypto analyst Axel Adler, this figure was considerably lower than the peak distribution waves, which typically measure 900k-1M coins a day.

Recently, the volume cooled, meaning large profit takers were less active. This was a neutral-bullish signal.

In fact, sustained Spent Volume under 500k BTC/day would support an uptrend.

Index Market Phase points to stage 4

Source: Adler Insights

The Bitcoin Index Market Phase showed that the market was in phase #4. It was just below the 0.6 threshold, which meant the market was in a late bull stage.

Unrealized Profits were already high, but the market has not yet reached a euphoric phase.

Together, these metrics showed room for expansion, but not likely in August or September. Historically, these months are volatile, so a pullback toward $100k to collect liquidity cannot be ruled out.