Bitcoin may be entering a key stage of its market cycle, according to cryptocurrency analyst Axel Adler, who examined on-chain data to assess where the asset stands in terms of long-term investor sentiment and price valuation.
Adler focused on a metric known as Bitcoin Distribution by Realized Supply, which helps determine whether BTC is trading above or below the cost basis of the average holder.
Unlike traditional price charts, this approach evaluates the value of all coins on the network based on the last price at which they moved — a method that reflects what investors actually paid. By dividing the current price by the realized supply, analysts derive a ratio similar in concept to the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio used in stock markets.
According to Adler, Bitcoin is currently sitting just above its annual average on this scale. This implies that the market is neither heavily overbought nor undervalued — a neutral zone that often precedes strong directional moves. Interestingly, a similar pattern appeared prior to Bitcoin’s breakout in late 2024, when the price jumped from $74,000 to $107,000 in a matter of weeks.
Adler also examined Bitcoin’s 365-day price change, which now hovers around 30%. If Bitcoin follows previous macro patterns, this growth could climb toward 60–70% on a yearly basis. That level, Adler notes, has historically triggered increased investor decision-making — either locking in profits or riding the rally in anticipation of even higher returns.
“The data suggests we’re in a moment of balance,” Adler said. “It’s a zone where both caution and optimism coexist — and where price action can flip quickly.”
If this cycle holds, the coming months could see stronger upward pressure as more investors recognize the shift in sentiment. However, the analyst also cautioned that external macroeconomic factors could either amplify or suppress momentum.
Ultimately, Adler’s analysis positions Bitcoin in a calm before the potential storm — a moment of consolidation that could lay the groundwork for its next major move.
Alexander Stefanov
Reporter at Coindoo
Alex is an experienced finance journalist and a cryptocurrency and blockchain enthusiast. With over 8 years of experience covering the crypto, blockchain and fintech industries, he deeply understands the complex and constantly evolving world of digital assets. His insightful and thought-provoking articles provide readers with a clear picture of the latest developments and trends in the market. His passionate approach allows him to break down complex ideas into accessible and insightful content. Follow up on his content to be up to date with the most important trends and topics.
Source: https://coindoo.com/bitcoins-current-price-appears-neutral-analyst-suggests-possible-room-for-growth/