Every market cycle has its optimists and its skeptics. But few analysts combine both roles at once the way macroeconomist Henrik Zeberg just did. His latest research paints a picture in which Bitcoin is about to deliver the most spectacular rally in its history — right before walking straight into an economic disaster.
Key Takeaways
- Henrik Zeberg expects Bitcoin to rally toward $150,000 before the cycle ends.
- After the peak, he warns of a global recession similar in scale to the 1930s.
- His view is that Bitcoin will fall with risk assets rather than act as a safe haven.
The way Zeberg describes it, markets today aren’t calm, nor are they cracking. They’re dancing — the kind of euphoric final stretch before the music suddenly stops. And the world, he says, is moments away from hearing that last note.
The Climax Before the Collapse
Rather than forecasting a slow topping process, Zeberg expects a dramatic blow-off phase where risk assets surge together. In his view, Bitcoin is not finished rising — the biggest price spike is still ahead.
He believes BTC could race toward $150,000 around the end of the year, driven by the same liquidity, speculation, and momentum that has pushed tech stocks to record highs. That run-up, however, wouldn’t be a sign of resilience — it would be the last shock wave before the crash.
The Crisis That Comes After
Once the peak passes, Zeberg says financial markets will enter a recession unlike anything Bitcoin has ever lived through. His argument is rooted in macro data rather than crypto behavior. Leading indicators, lagging indicators, and consumer trends are flashing the same signals, he argues, that preceded the Great Depression era.
He does not believe banks will be the first domino this time. He points instead to shadow banking and the private credit market, areas with enormous leverage and minimal visibility. When they break, the stress will spread everywhere — not gradually, but violently.
In that type of environment, Zeberg thinks Bitcoin would move with the stock market rather than against it. Because BTC has behaved like a speculative asset in the past decade, not a defensive one, he sees a future in which the price — after the euphoric high — potentially falls below $10,000 during the recession.
“Everything Bubble” — One Market, One Fate
Zeberg argues that the idea of crypto decoupling from stocks is based on hope, not evidence. The same forces inflating the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are inflating Bitcoin, he says. For that reason, if equities experience a deep correction — and he warns that losses could exceed 95% in an extreme scenario — crypto will not escape.
To illustrate the scale of the danger, he uses the metaphor of the Titanic: the ship is already taking on water, but only the passengers on the lower decks can see it right now. The rest are still dancing.
Why the Warning Matters
Zeberg isn’t one of the many analysts who change their forecasts weekly based on price action. His thesis is built on long-term macro cycles — and he has been consistent about the danger building beneath the surface. What makes his message striking today is that he combines a short-term explosive prediction for Bitcoin with a long-term collapse few are prepared for.
The story he tells has two acts, and both are extreme: A final surge to unprecedented highs, followed by а recession fierce enough to rewrite the psychology of investors.
To him, optimism and disaster are not competing outcomes — they’re consecutive chapters.
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Alex is an experienced financial journalist and cryptocurrency enthusiast. With over 8 years of experience covering the crypto, blockchain, and fintech industries, he is well-versed in the complex and ever-evolving world of digital assets. His insightful and thought-provoking articles provide readers with a clear picture of the latest developments and trends in the market. His approach allows him to break down complex ideas into accessible and in-depth content. Follow his publications to stay up to date with the most important trends and topics.