Bitcoin has just entered a new era — its 4th halving cycle, and with it, speculation is once again rising over how high the world’s leading cryptocurrency could go.
A chart from Ecoinometrics visualizes Bitcoin’s past halving cycles and explores the potential trajectory if this current cycle follows historical patterns.
What History Tells Us
Each Bitcoin halving reduces the reward miners receive, slowing the issuance of new BTC and tightening supply. Historically, this has preceded dramatic price increases:
- After the 1st halving (2012), BTC soared.
- After the 2nd halving (2016), it reached new all-time highs.
- The 3rd halving (2020) saw Bitcoin climb to nearly $70,000.
The 4th Cycle Begins
The chart starts this new halving cycle at $63,000, with potential outcomes projected based on the previous three cycles:
- Conservative projection (3rd halving pattern): ~$140,000
- Moderate projection (2nd halving pattern): ~$500,000
- Aggressive projection (1st halving pattern): Up to $4.5 million per Bitcoin
While that upper range might seem extreme, Bitcoin’s history is filled with unexpected surges — often far surpassing mainstream expectations.
The Trajectory Zone
The shaded blue region on the chart represents the average growth band based on prior cycles. So far, Bitcoin appears to be tracking in line with past behavior, maintaining upward momentum within the historical growth envelope.
What This Means for Investors
The wide range of possible outcomes underscores Bitcoin’s volatile but powerful growth potential. Whether BTC reaches six figures or defies all predictions to approach seven figures, the post-halving cycle remains one of the most closely watched periods in crypto.
One thing is clear: Bitcoin has never been shy of surprises — and the next few years could be historic.
Kosta Gushterov
Reporter at Coindoo
Kosta has been a part of the team since 2021 and has solidified his position with a thirst for knowledge, incredible dedication to his work and a “detective-like” mindset. He not only covers a wide range of trending topics, he also creates reviews, PR articles and educational content. His work has also been referenced by other news outlets.
Source: https://coindoo.com/bitcoins-4th-halving-could-btc-reach-4-5m/