Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle Theory Is Dead as Whale Strategy Has Shifted, Analysts Say

Bitcoin’s (BTC) widely referenced four-year cycle — the idea that its price predictably rises after each halving, before crashing and recovering — might be losing relevance, according to separate analyses from CryptoQuant and Bitwise executives.

In an X post today, July 25, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju declared that the “Bitcoin cycle theory is dead.” Ju argued that in previous market cycles, large holders typically offloaded their Bitcoin to retail investors near price peaks. This time, however, those whales are selling into stronger hands.

“This time, old whales sell to new long-term whales. Institutional adoption is bigger than we thought. Trading feels pointless. Holders now outnumber traders,” Ju said in the X post.

The shift, in his view, undermines traditional trading strategies built around cyclical retail behavior. “My mistake was ignoring this shift in my ‘bull cycle is over’ call,” Ju admitted. “I sincerely apologize if my prediction impacted your investment.”

Still, the market hasn’t forgotten Ju’s previous claims. In early April, when Bitcoin was trading around $84,000, he warned that the bull run was likely over, pointing to rising Realized Cap — a metric that tracks actual capital inflows through blockchain data — even as prices held steady.

He interpreted the divergence as a signal of a bear market. Yet, Bitcoin kept climbing, and by July it had surged past $120,000, setting multiple new all-time highs this month.

Halving’s Impact

The CryptoQuant CEO is not alone in questioning the model. Other longtime market watchers have begun expressing similar skepticism about the durability of Bitcoin’s four-year cycle. Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, has noted that the forces that have created prior four-year cycles “are weaker” now.

The halving’s impact weakens with each iteration, Hougan argued in an X post today, while external pressures — like interest rates and regulatory risk — have softened.

Meanwhile, bigger long-term forces are taking over, Hougan says. For instance, the steady flow of money into spot ETFs, growing interest from institutional investors, and Wall Street’s slow move into building crypto infrastructure.

“Regulatory progress began in earnest in January 2025 and will run for multiple years. Wall Street is just now starting to build on crypto, and will invest billions in the quarters and years to come. This started in earnest with the passage of the Genius Act this month,” Hougan noted.

The result, he suggested, may not be another explosive “super-cycle,” but rather a “sustained steady boom.”

The United States’ stablecoin-focused legislation, dubbed the GENIUS Act, was signed into law by President Donald Trump last Friday, after a multi-month — though relatively speedy — journey through Congress. Other landmark U.S. crypto bills, namely the broader market-structure-focused CLARITY Act, have also advanced in Congress, but have yet to pass into law.