Bitcoin’s 4-year curve cracks – But a $250K cycle is still possible IF…

Bitcoin held 58% market dominance during the ongoing bear phase. Its price traded near $86,000 at press time, which pushed its total market capitalization below $2 trillion.

According to the author of Market Wizard, Peter Brandt, traders needed to agree with the cyclical decay of Bitcoin price action. Miners were capitulating while discussions about Bitcoin and its associated products were gaining pace.

Brandt revisits Bitcoin’s shrinking cycle multiples

Over the last few months, Bitcoin has been decreasing its price proportionally to the current value, aligning with the historical trends.

Every four years, BTC has gone on to hit new highs, which were followed by periods of retracement, just like the cryptocurrency is doing currently. In fact, these parabolic runs were corrected by more than 75% from their highs.

Peter Brandt believes Bitcoin [BTC] could continue declining, but the reaction upon reaching $50K would be explosive. He wrote,

“Agree with it or not, you will have to deal with it. Should the current decline carry to $50k, the next bull market cycle should carry to $200k to $250K.”

Source: Peter Brandt/X

For more context, there have been five such events since BTC made its debut.

This explained why it was still great to side with the market, especially Bitcoin. The break of the 4-year parabola by BTC suggested bear conditions could be extended.

After bears broke the current cycle, it hinted at a potential drop to $50K, as noted by Peter.

However, this occurrence was very unlikely following BTC’s strength. Such a revisit would mean extreme bear market conditions.

Source: Peter Brandt/X

The ADX was dropping, meaning the bear trend was losing strength at the time of writing.

While this was in play, a miner’s wallet moved 50 BTC valued at $4.33 million earned as a reward more than 15 years ago.

That move aligned with recent capitulation signals that trailed Bitcoin’s drop below its four-year parabola curve. Brandt previously warned that losing that curve would extend bear conditions.

By contrast, Bitcoin discussions rose sharply on social platforms. Santiment data showed stronger chatter around Bitcoin, MicroStrategy, Tether, Dent, Chainlink, and Polkadot.

What’s the short-term price outlook?

On the charts, the price action was forming a support area, though there was still a possibility of dropping toward $80,000. This would put BTC on a path toward $50,000 if the demand zone above $80,000 did not hold.

Source: TradingView

Still, this discount presented an opportunity to go long, as put by Peter Brandt. A breakdown below $75,000 heightens the odds of dropping to $50K, which would be the epitome of the bear market.

Final Thoughts

• Bitcoin’s cycle multiples kept shrinking, and Brandt said the trend pointed toward slower future rallies.
• A miner moved 50 BTC after 15 years, adding to capitulation signals seen during the latest decline.