Bitcoin – Why Arthur Hayes is making a ‘< $50K this weekend' prediction

• Arthur Hayes believes BTC could slip below $50k into the weekend
• Bitget’s Gracy Chen maintains a long-term bullish outlook though

Bitcoin’s [BTC] weakness hiked in September as the world’s largest digital asset struggled below $60k on the charts. In fact, according to Arthur Hayes, Co-Founder of BitMEX and CIO at VC fund Maelstrom, BTC could drop further down and slip below $50k over the weekend. 

“$BTC is heavy, I’m gunning for sub $50k this weekend. I took a cheeky short.”

More BTC losses in the short term?

Earlier in the week, Hayes made a bearish call for BTC in the short term, arguing that the expected Fed rate cuts wouldn’t rally crypto markets. This, before interest rate traders increased bets on a 0.25% and 0.50% Fed rate cut ahead of the U.S jobs report on Friday. 

According to the exec’s argument. U.S liquidity is squeezed as financial institutions have opted for the Fed’s RRP (reverse repurchase agreement) for higher yields, rather than betting on risky assets like Bitcoin. This would mean net negative liquidity, which could lower BTC prices despite the likely Fed rate cuts, he added. 

Here, it’s worth pointing out that demand for the crypto has also tapered significantly since Q1. According to CryptoQuant data, investor demand hit record lows at press time, which could further put downward pressure on the crypto’s price. 

Source: CryptoQuant

For his part, Peter Brandt suggested that BTC would see more selling than buying, given its current megaphone price chart pattern. In a worst-case scenario, Brandt projected that BTC could drop to as low as $46k. 

Source: X/Peter Brandt

On the contrary, some market insiders remain bullish in the long run. Gracy Chen, CEO of crypto exchange Bitget, told AMBCrypto that September losses would be the ‘”ast drop” before a potential BTC rally in Q4 and 2025. 

“The recent market decline at the beginning of September is often referred to as the ‘last drop,’ with prices expected to hit new highs by the end of the year. Many analysts remain quite optimistic about Bitcoin’s price outlook for Q4 2024.”

Given the long-term bullish outlook, Chen projected that BTC could climb above $100k by November. 

“In a scenario without any black swan events, Bitcoin could potentially break through the $100,000 threshold by November, experience a correction, and then begin its climb toward the $200,000 range.”

BTC was valued at $56.4k at press time as traders and investors waited for the U.S Jobs report.