Bitcoin: Why a fall in BTC prices seem more likely now than a rise

Posted: September 29, 2023

• Since the daily closing price became lower, BTC looks ready to fall again.
• Miners could help prevent a massive plunge as long as the exchange flow remains stable.

According to Into The Cryptovers founder Benjamin Cowen, Bitcoin [BTC] could be on its way to hitting a death cross. Cowen, who posted his opinion on X (formerly Twitter) noted that the death cross would lead the coin into lower highs which had already begun to appear.

Read Bitcoin’s [BTC] Price Prediction 2023-2024

BTC could fall at the end

For context, a death cross refers to the drop of the short-term Moving Average (MA) below the long-term MA. Whenever this happens, Bitcoin’s market chart reflects price weakness.

With the lower high, which occurs when the closing price of an asset is lower than the high of the previous day in motion, BTC may have no other option than to decrease.

#BTC death cross rally so far has just been lower highs, which is pretty typical.

So the general idea is the #BTC pumps into the death cross, finds a lower high, and the downtrend continues. https://t.co/Hc5IsS7iO4 pic.twitter.com/09YCd0a3ec

— Benjamin Cowen (@intocryptoverse) September 27, 2023

Cowen earlier predicted a lower high for Bitcoin since 12 September. Around that time, BTC was on its way to hitting $27,000. However, the price action of the king coin has ended in consolidation in the last seven days.

But for Vladimir Toporkov, Chief Marketing Officer at stablecoin payment firm Edelcoin, Bitcoin could close as high as $30,387 in the fourth quarter (Q4).

Although Toporkov admitted that the coin’s volatility would be tested, he also noted that sentiment that trailed the Bitcoin ETF applications could reappear. Toporkov’s concluding remark was that participants should be cautious noting that,

“Moving forward, it is advisable that investors should conduct thorough research and anticipate short-term fluctuations, especially as we head toward year-end when most whales are known to take profits from the market.”

Keep miners at bay unless…

In another corner, IT Tech, an on-chain analyst checked out what was happening with Bitcoin, and the potential effect of miners’ actions on the price. Previously, miners were involved in selling off some of their holdings.

But at the time IT Tech published on CryptoQuant, the seven-day miners to exchange inflow had stabilized. This metric is the total number of coins owned by miners and transferred to exchanges. 

When the miner-to-exchange inflow increases, it depicts a potential intent to sell. However, a decrease suggests otherwise.  As of 28 September, the metric has decreased to 125.54. The day before, it was as high as 1200.

Source: CryptoQuant

How much are 1,10,100 BTCs worth today?

Therefore, the increase implies that Bitcoin might not experience a great deal of selling pressure. That is if the metric does not spike. Meanwhile, IT Tech ended his analysis with a warning noting that,

“Miners’ reserves remain stable and I haven’t observed any significant sell-off from miners’ side. Nevertheless, in the current market condition, they do exert some selling pressure, particularly during periods of low volume and slow price movements.”