Bitcoin vs. bond yields – Why THIS rotation signal matters now

Key Takeaways

What signals support Bitcoin’s bullish case now?

Falling high-yield bond yields and an MVRV Ratio of 2.16 suggested easing credit stress and investor appetite.

What levels are BTC traders watching now?

CoinGlass data showed liquidation clusters between $114K–$118K, with Open Interest at $83.62 billion supporting a potential short squeeze to $118K.

Bitcoin [BTC] maintained a steady correlation with the S&P 500, with both assets recording gains and losses influenced by macroeconomic factors.

High-yield bonds remained one of those critical metrics, with Bitcoin showing positive signals as the asset reclaimed $116,000 on the 15th of September.

AMBCrypto has analyzed these factors to determine whether this could be the bullish green light for price.

Bond yields guide BTC rotation

High-yield bonds, tracked through the ICE BofA US High Yield Index, were signaling bullish conditions for BTC.

Historically, falling yields pointed to easing credit risk and stronger investor appetite for risk-on assets. Rising yields, by contrast, flagged credit stress and pressured BTC prices.

This dynamic often rotated capital into BTC, as investors anticipated higher returns than safer market segments.

Source: Alphractal

This fractal pattern, according to Alphractal, has been respected nine times across previous market cycles.

Recent data showed that a similar decline is underway, with Bitcoin positioned to benefit and potentially close the gap to its ATH above $124,000.

Bitcoin faces reduced selling pressure

Bitcoin appeared to be in a calm position, supported by the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio according to CryptoQuant.

This indicator, used to determine whether Bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued, showed that the asset was in a position where steady inflows remain likely.

Source: CryptoQuant

With a reading of 2.2 at press time, data indicated more capital was still locked in Bitcoin, helping to sustain its price.

In addition, the Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) ratio, which tracks whether investors are in profit, reflected a similar sentiment.

Notably, profits remain modest as NUPL stood at 0.523, showing investors held modest profits without extreme gains. This implied stronger holding behavior and reduced near-term sell pressure.

Heatmap signals two-way path

Bitcoin remained on a two-way path despite bullish confirmations from indicators, according to the Liquidation Heatmap.

The heatmap on CoinGlass showed that Bitcoin could oscillate between $114,000 and $118,000, with liquidation clusters heavily concentrated within those levels.

Source: CoinGlass

At the same time, the derivatives market leaned bullish. Funding Rates stood at 0.0091%, while Open Interest reached $83.62 billion.

These aligned with a potential short-term rally toward $118,000 if sentiment held.