Bitcoin Volatility Drops Below 30% as Traders Eye $114K

• Bitcoin volatility has dropped below 30%, signaling an unusually calm but fragile phase.
• Realized profits and ETF inflows are down nearly 50% from recent peaks.
• Analysts expect a short-term bounce toward $114K.

Bitcoin’s price action has entered a decisive phase, with both on-chain and off-chain signals painting a picture of fragility and potential volatility. 

According to Glassnode and Bitcoin Vector, the cryptocurrency is now testing critical levels that could determine whether the market experiences a short-lived bounce or will bears dominate.

Volatility Compression Rarely Lasts

All short-term realized volatility metrics have now dropped under 30%, a level last seen after the $107K bottom. Historically, such periods of low volatility do not last, often giving way to sharp price movements.

Momentum Weakens: Profits and ETF Flows

On-chain profits are rolling over. Glassnode data shows realized profit (30-day SMA) has fallen to $1.17 billion per day, down nearly 47% from the $2.2 billion peak in June. 

While this remains above the bear-market baseline of less than $800 million, it suggests fading enthusiasm among market participants. 

ETF flows also weakened. Net inflows to US spot Bitcoin ETFs have slipped to around 980 BTC/day on a 90-day SMA basis, nearly half the July peak of 1,960 BTC/day. This indicates waning institutional demand from traditional finance.

Traders Focus on Post-Compression Levels

Bitcoin Vector emphasizes that the real focus is not the breakout itself but what follows the compression. BTC is now pushing to reclaim the prior range lows at $112K–$121K.

Glassnode suggested a rally toward $114,000 is likely, though the broader bias remains tilted toward bearish continuation unless price firmly breaks above that threshold.

Key BTC Levels

A daily close above $112,000 would favor the bulls with the real test coming at $113,600 and $115,600. Creating support in this zone could turn BTC bullish.

Related: El Salvador Buys $50 Million Worth of Gold – Is This Its Next Hedge After Bitcoin?

At press time, Bitcoin is trading near $111,100, wedged between the 0.85 and 0.94 quantile cost basis band of $104,100–$114,100. Glassnode described this range as historically consistent with post-euphoria consolidation. 

A breakdown below $104,000 would likely signal further exhaustion, while reclaiming levels above $114,000 could confirm renewed demand strength.

The coming days will likely determine whether bulls can flip the market structure back into their control, or whether the consolidation resolves with further downside pressure.

Related: Bitcoin Price Prediction: Analysts Eye $113K Rebound As CME Gap Anchors Support