Bitcoin Unrealized Profit Falls to 0.39: Is This a Buy Opportunity?

TLDR:

• The Bitcoin NUPL has dropped to 0.39, marking its lowest point since October 2023 during the current cycle.
• Reduced unrealized profits show shrinking market confidence while long-term holders remain largely profitable.
• The P/L ratio at 0.7 signals realized losses now exceed gains, aligning with earlier capitulation phases.
• On-chain patterns mirror previous correction stages that preceded renewed accumulation across the cycle.

Bitcoin NUPL has fallen to 0.39, marking its lowest point since October 2023 and raising new questions about whether the market is entering a favourable accumulation window. 

The latest on-chain readings show unrealized profits continuing to shrink as market participants face expanded downside pressure. Yet, the current level still sits above previous correction zones in this cycle, placing traders in a position where sentiment appears strained but not structurally broken.

Bitcoin NUPL movements often act as a gauge of investor confidence, and this decline arrives as several on-chain indicators point to growing stress among short-term holders. 

At the same time, long-term participants remain broadly profitable, which has historically supported renewed accumulation during similar phases. With volatility shaping current conditions, the latest reading is drawing increased attention.

Bitcoin NUPL at 0.39 and Its Market Relevance

Bitcoin NUPL reached 0.39 this week, according to on-chain analyst Darkfost, who noted that this reading reflects reduced unrealized profits across the market. 

The NUPL ratio, calculated through the formula (MC–RC/MC), allows analysts to track the average profit position by comparing Bitcoin’s market cap to its realized cap. This dataset shows that the market remains in profit, but the cushion has narrowed meaningfully.

Darkfost explained that investors often remain patient when still holding gains, even during periods of market retracement. 

In earlier phases of the current cycle, similar NUPL readings aligned with renewed buying activity rather than broad capitulation. He pointed out that this zone has repeatedly drawn interest from participants seeking strategic re-entry points.

Despite the current market atmosphere, the decline to 0.39 places BTC in a familiar position seen during past corrections. 

This provides a reference zone for traders evaluating whether the contraction in unrealized gains signals the early stages of a recovery window.

P/L Ratio Shows Capitulation as Losses Surpass Gains

Alongside the NUPL reading, Darkfost highlighted the latest changes in the Profit/Loss ratio, which has now fallen below 1 on its 7-day moving average. 

With a reading of 0.7, realized losses exceed realized gains across recent weeks. This stands in sharp contrast to the yearly average of 7.6, showing how rapidly conditions have shifted.

He observed that this setup has appeared at every major correction of the current cycle. During these stages, traders often saw capitulation peaks, followed by periods where the market began to shift direction. 

Such historical patterns have made the metric a key reference for analysts monitoring exhaustion in selling pressure.

As selling continues to outweigh buying, the ratio places the market in a zone frequently associated with turning points. 

While conditions remain unstable, the similarity to earlier phases is drawing attention from participants evaluating whether the current decline is approaching a favourable accumulation stage.

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Source: https://blockonomi.com/bitcoin-unrealized-profit-falls-to-0-39-is-this-a-buy-opportunity/