Bitcoin transaction count at lowest despite rising bullish signs – Why?

• Transaction activity on the Bitcoin network is at its lowest since March 2024, but still above the peak of 2022.
• A 10% Bid Imbalance on BTC order-book within the same 0-5% depth range indicated bullish signals. 

Bitcoin’s [BTC] transaction activity has dipped to the lowest levels observed since March 2024, marking a significant decrease in network movements.

Despite this reduction, the transaction volume remained higher than the peak recorded in 2022, indicating a sustained interest and utility at a macroeconomic level.

This historical context sets a complex scene where despite lower immediate activity, the broader demand for Bitcoin transactions is still robust, suggesting underlying strength.

Past trends show clearly that such dips often precede volatility; hence, if the pattern holds, BTC could see an uptick in transaction volumes in the coming months.

Source: CryptoQuant

Despite the fact that this potential increase could energize the market, leading to a possible surge in BTC’s price, previously, the presence of a 10% Ask Imbalance within the 0-5% depth range on the BTC order book signaled a bearish move.

However, recently, a 10% Bid Imbalance emerged in the same depth range, indicating bullish market signals where demand outstrips supply.

This pattern suggests an impending upward trend for Bitcoin if this Bid Imbalance follows historical trends.

If the imbalance does not lead to increased buying pressure or if external market factors weigh heavily, the expected bullish reversal might not materialize, potentially leaving the market flat or vulnerable to further dips.

Source: Hyblock Capital

BTC predictions and long-term holder behavior

More bullish signals for Bitcoin escalated, as Trader Tardigrade’s analysis on X noted,

“#Bitcoin is forming a Rising Wedge This bearish chart pattern took $BTC from $70k to $108k by the end of 2024. If $BTC follows the same path, the next target could reach $145k”

Since the Rising Wedge is traditionally bearish, if this pattern breaks downward contrary to recent trends, it could indicate a reversal, leading to a sharp decline in price.

Winding up, long-term holder behavior revealed distinct patterns of accumulation and distribution that corresponded with market cycles.

Historically, distribution aligns with bull markets, signaling periods when long-term holders sell off their holdings.

Currently, we’re in a distribution phase that has lasted 385 days, with previous phases spanning approximately 420 to 530 days.

This pattern suggested traders could expect this phase to continue for about 400 to 550 days in total, potentially ending around mid-May.

Source: IntoTheBlock

Read Bitcoin’s [BTC] Price Prediction 2025–2026

Typically, the end of distribution phases correlates with market peaks, followed by price declines and a shift back to accumulation.

This cycle’s behavior indicated that a peak before May could be plausible, marking a critical juncture for Bitcoin’s price trajectory in the current market cycle.