Peter Brandt, a renowned trader with 50 years of experience, opened a new front in the Bitcoin conversation by pointing at a target almost nobody wanted to see on the December opening. Amid tug-of-war price action between $86,000-$93,000 per BTC, the trader, in his latest X post, went straight to his long-term channel and highlighted the band that has defined every major cycle since 2013.
According to Brandt and his outlook, Bitcoin never reached the top boundary of the long-term channel during this year’s run, and every time that happened in past cycles, the market ended up sliding to the lower band, which now starts under $70,000 and runs into the mid-$40,000s — that is why he treats that entire zone as a real target, not a shock number.
He posted this view just as Bitcoin dropped from about $92,000 to the $86,000s in one clean move, wiping out most of the slow gains the market built earlier in the week.
For the trader, it is the kind of move that appears when buyers lose control near a key level. Since BTC still has not reclaimed $93,000 on the monthly chart, the setup moves from “healthy trend” into “at-risk trend.”
New normal
Brandt also replied to traders pushing back on his call by pointing to the same model he has used for more than 10 years. That model caught every major high and every major reset in previous cycles, and it shows the same message now: if Bitcoin fails to reach the upper boundary, it usually ends up visiting the lower one.
That is why a move into the $40,000s is not presented as panic but as a normal destination inside the channel.
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In his view, the recent drop, the lack of monthly confirmation and the weaker structure all line up. The chart does not predict disaster; it simply marks the $40,000 zone as a valid point in the cycle if current levels do not hold.