 
 
Crypto markets turned green on Valentine’s Day, led by a sharp 4% rebound in Bitcoin following softer-than-expected U.S. inflation data. The cooler consumer price index (CPI) print strengthened expectations of rate cuts, lifting risk assets and reinforcing Bitcoin’s growing correlation with gold, as investors rotated toward perceived inflation hedges.
The immediate technical outlook hinges on whether the price can hold above $68,000, which would open a path toward the $72,000 resistance. However, a drop below that threshold risks a retest of the $65,000 support level.
The next macro catalyst is the March 11 CPI release. Market sentiment remains split between ETF-driven outflows and improving macro conditions, with analysts watching for a sustained move above $70,000 to challenge the prevailing bearish structure.
Despite the rally, on-chain data suggests caution. One Yogita Khatri revealed that CryptoQuant estimates Bitcoin’s “ultimate” bear-market bottom near $55,000, anchored to its realised price, which has historically been a key support during downturns.
In prior cycles, Bitcoin fell 24% below realised price after the FTX collapse and 30% during the 2018 bear market, then spent four to six months forming a base. Current metrics indicate the market has not reached that capitulation phase.
 
Moreover, holders realised $5.4 billion in daily losses when Bitcoin dropped 14% to $62,000 on February 5, the largest since March 2023. Yet monthly cumulative realised losses total 0.3 million BTC, well below the 1.1 million BTC seen at the 2022 bottom.
Meanwhile, valuation gauges such as MVRV and NUPL have not entered extreme undervaluation zones, and 55% of supply remains profitable, above the typical 45%-50% at cycle lows.
Nevertheless, CryptoQuant’s Bull Bear Market Cycle Indicator is still in a Bear Phase rather than the Extreme Bear Phase associated with durable bottoms.