Bitcoin [BTC] isn’t quite done yet.
Despite long-term cycle projections indicating a potential peak in the current times, liquidity conditions remain supportive. At the same time, risk is changing hands rather than leaving the market.
What’s next?
Liquidity trends challenge early cycle peak
It is widely believed that Bitcoin’s cycle could peak around early 2026, but those views are mostly based on past patterns. Right now, it looks different, with no clear signs that global liquidity will coil in the coming months.
Source: X
Instead, conditions remain supportive, which has so far helped risk assets like Bitcoin [BTC] perform well. Notably, the Global Liquidity Index has reached a new high for this cycle, so money conditions are still expanding.
Markets do not always follow fixed timelines, and Bitcoin has often moved with changes in liquidity.
Ergo, the chances of Bitcoin seeing upside look much stronger than a cycle top.
Now, as this happens…
…here’s how Bitcoin is handling this phase of the cycle.
Looking at the Realized Price by UTXO Age Bands, risk is being redistributed.
STHs are sitting comfortably in profit, with their realized prices below the Spot level near $95,500. That means recent buyers aren’t under pressure, reducing the chances of fear.
Source: CryptoQuant
Actually, it’s the mid-term holders who have the weight of the world on them. Both the 3-6 month and 6-12 month cohorts are underwater, but it looks like losses are being absorbed in patience.
From a price POV
Bitcoin is taking a moment. At press time, BTC was holding near $95,000 after a strong rebound from the $91,000-$92,000 demand zone. This is a level given strength by visible volume support on the chart. That area is now a key downside cushion.
Source: TradingView
On the upside, $97,000-$98,000 was the immediate resistance, where recent attempts stalled. RSI held above 60, while the MACD was positive, though momentum has slowed just a tad.
BTC looks like it’s consolidating, and if it holds above $95K, a push ahead is on the table.
Final Thoughts
- Bitcoin traders are bullish as global liquidity hits new cycle highs with minimal pressure.
- With BTC holding above $95K, risk appears redistributed. Upside possibilities are high.
Source: https://ambcrypto.com/bitcoin-targets-98k-decoding-the-liquidity-vs-peak-cycle-debate/