Bitcoin Supply Hits 8-Year Low—Is $138K BTC Price Still in Play?

BTC price rebounds as whales buy $11.2B worth since Mar. 11. Supply falls, ETF flows return, but caution lingers with a $75K pullback risk and a $138K cap in prediction markets.

Exchange Balances Fall as Whales Accumulate Billions

Bitcoin’s (BTC) exchange supply has dropped to its lowest level since 2018, signaling a strong trend toward self-custody and long-term holding.

On Mar. 27, analytics platform Santiment reported that only 7.53% of Bitcoin remains on exchanges, stating,

“This is the lowest seen in over 8 years.”

The drop suggests reduced sell-side pressure and higher conviction among holders.

Meanwhile, whale wallets have absorbed over 129,000 BTC since Mar. 11, equivalent to $11.2 billion at the current price of $87,500, according to Glassnode. The firm said this is the fastest accumulation rate since Aug. 2024.

ETF Inflows Return as BTC Price Reclaims Bullish Momentum

Bitcoin’s rebound began after Mar. 14, as exchange-traded funds (ETFs) started seeing consistent inflows again.

Between Feb. 10 and Mar. 13, ETF flows remained flat or negative, coinciding with BTC price’s 17% decline.

The return of institutional demand triggered a double-digit rally. OKX analysts, in a Mar. 25 research note, said the recent decline may represent a short “mini bear market” rather than a cycle-ending collapse.

The Short-Term Holder Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio—an on-chain metric—fell below its 365-day average on Feb. 25. While historically bearish, the trend may reverse as exchange supply continues to decline.

BTC Price Structure Breaks Trigger Bullish Speculation

Bitcoin has broken multiple key resistance levels this week, sparking renewed optimism. Merlijn The Trader said on X that Bitcoin “just smashed through a descending channel” after months of sideways movement.

Another trader, @Buy_SomeBTC, noted that BTC price broke a pennant formation on the 4-hour chart. He expects a short-term move to $69,000–$70,000 before a clearer trend emerges.

Still, technical setups remain mixed. Trader CryptoFeras flagged a potential “bull flag inside a bigger bear flag,” warning that a bounce toward $89,000 could precede a drop to $75,000.

Prediction Markets Remain Cautious Despite Bullish Hype

While sentiment has turned bullish among some retail traders, prediction markets remain conservative.

According to Polymarket data shared by Ashwin on Mar. 27, most bets place BTC price’s 2025 high below $138,617.

Other traders have gone further. X User CryptoNobler claimed, “The biggest bull run in history starts next week,” predicting $BTC will reach $320,000 and spark a huge altseason.

However, these claims remain unverified and contrast sharply with more grounded market analysis. Kalshi forecasts a BTC high of $122,000 in 2025—just $11,000 above its previous peak.

Support Zones in Focus Amid Volatility

BTC price has recovered from sub-$78,000 levels earlier this month, supported by dovish Federal Reserve language and easing fears over Trump’s upcoming trade tariffs.

Technical analyst Aksel Kibar warned that Bitcoin’s yearly average near $76,000 must hold. He stated on X,

“Extremely important for the price not to breach the year-long average.”

For now, self-custody trends and whale buying suggest institutional conviction remains intact. Whether BTC price can break above $89,000 or face another pullback remains to be seen.